Report published September 3, 2026
South Korea Inflation: August CPI Rises on Base Effects but Stays Below Consensus
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 3, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Irene Choi, Goohoon Kwon, CFA
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
South Korea's headline CPI rose to 3.1% yoy in August from 2.8% in July due to a temporary low base effect from August 2025, falling short of Bloomberg consensus (3.2%) and Goldman Sachs' forecast (3.3%). Sequential momentum remained subdued at +0.1% mom sa, while core inflation rose to 3.4% yoy but saw its sequential pace moderate to 0.2% mom sa.
Key Takeaways
- 1.South Korea's headline CPI rose to 3.1% yoy in August from 2.8% in July, driven primarily by a low base effect from a mobile phone discount in August 2025.
- 2.Headline inflation missed both Bloomberg consensus (3.2% yoy) and Goldman Sachs' forecast (3.3% yoy), undershooting consensus expectations for the second straight month.
- 3.Sequential momentum remained muted at +0.1% mom sa, as goods prices fell for a second month (-0.3%) led by agricultural goods (-2.2%), while services inflation was steady at 0.2% mom sa.
Table of Contents
- Bottom line:
- Key numbers:
- Main points:
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: Inflation up in August due to low base from 2025...
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI Inflation | 3.1% | South Korea August headline inflation YoY, up from 2.8% in July |
| Headline CPI Inflation Consensus Forecast | 3.2% | Bloomberg consensus estimate for August headline inflation YoY |
| Headline CPI Inflation Goldman Sachs Forecast | 3.3% | GS forecast for August headline inflation YoY |
| Headline CPI Sequential Momentum | 0.1% | Month-on-month seasonally adjusted headline CPI, rebounding from -0.1% |
| Core CPI Inflation (ex-food and energy) | 3.4% | South Korea August core CPI YoY, up from 2.6% in July |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Headline CPI Inflation: 3.1 % (2026-08) · Source: Korea Statistics Office
- Headline CPI Inflation Consensus Forecast: 3.2 % (2026-08) · Source: Bloomberg
- Headline CPI Inflation Goldman Sachs Forecast: 3.3 % (2026-08) · Source: Goldman Sachs
- Headline CPI Sequential Momentum: 0.1 % (2026-08) · Source: Goldman Sachs
- Core CPI Inflation (ex-food and energy): 3.4 % (2026-08) · Source: Korea Statistics Office
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