Report published September 23, 2026

South Africa: SARB Hikes by 25bp (As Expected), Citing Global Supply Shocks and Central Bank Tightening – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs · September 23, 2026

The South African Reserve Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% in a unanimous MPC vote, citing global supply shocks and central bank tightening. Goldman Sachs expects the SARB to hold rates steady before shifting to policy rate cuts in Q1 2027 as inflation falls toward 3%.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The SARB unanimously raised its policy repo rate by 25bp to 7.25%, in line with consensus and market expectations, citing persistent supply shocks and global monetary tightening.
2.The SARB upgraded its headline inflation projections to 4.4% for 2026 and 4.0% for 2027, projecting inflation above 5% through early 2027, while trimming 2026 GDP growth to 1.2%.
3.Goldman Sachs forecasts policy rates to remain on hold before easing starts in Q1 2027 as inflation declines to 3% in Q2 on base effects, although near-term risks remain tilted toward higher rates.

Main Points

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
SARB Policy Rate	7.25%	SARB policy rate hike decision
SARB 2026 Headline Inflation Forecast	4.4%	SARB headline inflation forecast revised from 4.0%
SARB 2027 Headline Inflation Forecast	4.0%	SARB headline inflation forecast revised from 3.8%
SARB 2027 Core Inflation Forecast	4.0%	SARB core inflation forecast revised from 3.7%
SARB 2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast	1.2%	SARB GDP growth forecast revised lower from 1.4%