Report published September 23, 2026

South Africa: Headline and Core Inflation Broadly Stable in August, Surprising Slightly to the Downside

Goldman Sachs · September 23, 2026

South Africa's August headline CPI rose slightly to 4.4% yoy while core CPI eased to 4.1% yoy, both coming in 0.1pp below consensus. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for average inflation of 4.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.South Africa's headline CPI edged up to 4.4% yoy in August while core CPI slowed to 4.1% yoy, both surprising consensus and Goldman Sachs forecasts by 0.1pp to the downside.
2.Non-core inflation factors proved more benign than anticipated due to lower fuel inflation (20.0% yoy vs 20.6% in July) and a decline in electricity inflation (7.4% yoy vs 8.3% in July).
3.Goldman Sachs maintains its South Africa average inflation forecasts of 4.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

Bottom Line
Key Numbers for August
Main Points

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
Headline CPI	4.4 % yoy	South Africa headline CPI inflation for August 2026 vs GS and consensus forecasts of 4.5%
Core CPI	4.1 % yoy	South Africa core CPI (excl. food, NAB, petrol and energy) for August 2026 vs GS and consensus of 4.2%
Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation	1.1 % yoy	South Africa food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation
Petrol inflation	20.0 % yoy	South Africa petrol inflation
Electricity inflation	7.4 % yoy	South Africa electricity tariff inflation