What's Top of Mind in Macro Research

Latest edition · September 10, 2026

What's Top of Mind in Macro Research Higher energy prices, more inflation risk, more earlier rate hikes

Escalating Middle East tensions have triggered a renewed spike in oil and European gas prices, raising inflation risks and bringing forward central bank rate hikes. In response, Goldman Sachs recommends maintaining a tactically neutral cross-asset posture with selective overlay hedges.

Escalation in the Middle East conflict has led Goldman Sachs to raise its Brent crude price forecasts to $85/bbl for December 2026 and $80/bbl for 2027, and its 4Q26 European TTF gas forecast to €70/MWh. These elevated energy costs pose renewed upside risks to inflation and policy rates, prompting Goldman Sachs to forecast an additional ECB rate hike in December and an RBA rate hike pulled forward to September. Across markets, elevated energy risks are keeping bond yields high and pressuring rate-sensitive equities, justifying a tactically neutral stance across asset classes alongside style diversification and selective hedging.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Escalation in the Middle East conflict is driving a surge in Brent crude and European natural gas (TTF) prices, raising inflation risks globally.
• 2.Energy price pressures are prompting earlier and additional central bank rate hikes, notably an anticipated December ECB hike and an RBA hike pulled forward to September.
• 3.Goldman Sachs recommends remaining tactically neutral across asset classes while maintaining a modestly pro-risk stance over a 12-month horizon.

What this series covers

• Higher energy prices, more inflation risk, more and earlier rate hikes
• Oil markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Middle East conflict
• What else is on our radar?
• Relevant research
• Macro at a glance
• Key GS economic and market forecasts
• More from TOP of MIND
• Disclosure Appendix

Edition archive

• What's Top of Mind in Macro Research Higher energy prices, more inflation risk, more earlier rate hikes

  September 10, 2026

• What's Top of Mind in Macro Research Yen intervention, tech rebound but leadership rotation, US jobs report

  August 5, 2026

• What's Top of Mind in Macro Research Further Middle East escalation, AI volatility, IPO and debt surge

  July 23, 2026

• What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research Longer Fed hold ECB and BoJ hikes

  June 12, 2026

• What's Top of Mind in Macro Research Further US equity upside

  May 28, 2026

• What's Top of Mind in Macro Research Sharp global bond selloff

  May 21, 2026