What Matters Today

Latest edition · August 13, 2026

GS - What Matters Today Earnings Beat a High Bar but Were not Rewarded, Increasing our Conviction in Alphabet, MSCI Rebalance Implications - 13Aug26

This daily note highlights that while 64% of companies are beating EPS estimates, the market is largely unrewarding beats. Additionally, Goldman Sachs reaffirms conviction in Alphabet following its Gemini/hardware event and details $35bn+ in expected gross passive flows from the MSCI August 2026 index rebalance.

Goldman Sachs' daily note reviews key market dynamics, noting that 64% of companies are exceeding EPS consensus by over 1 standard deviation, yet median 1-day excess returns for beats sit at just +20bps (versus +95bps historically). Sector-wise, TMT beats lagged the market on day 0. The firm expresses increased conviction in Alphabet following its recent keynote, emphasizing its distribution, infrastructure, and monetization edges. Lastly, it details MSCI August 2026 rebalancing effects, expecting over $35bn in gross flows in APAC/GEM markets with major passive inflows into Japan (+$1.9bn) and India (+$1.4bn).

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The Q2 earnings beat rate is near record highs at 64%, but markets are failing to reward beats (+20bps excess return vs +95bps historically) or harshly punish misses (-118bps vs -211bps historically).
• 2.Goldman Sachs raised conviction in Alphabet following its hardware keynote, citing its advantages in distribution, diversified monetization strategies, and infrastructure scale.
• 3.MSCI's August 2026 index review will trigger over $35bn in gross two-way flows across APAC/GEM markets, with Japan, India, and Taiwan seeing the largest net passive inflows.

What this series covers

• 1) Earnings Beat a High Bar but Were not Rewarded
• 2) Increasing our Conviction in Alphabet
• 3) MSCI Rebalance Implications

Edition archive

• GS - What Matters Today Earnings Beat a High Bar but Were not Rewarded, Increasing our Conviction in Alphabet, MSCI Rebalance Implications - 13Aug26

  August 13, 2026

• GS - What Matters Today: Earnings Beat a High Bar but Were not Rewarded, Increasing our Conviction in Alphabet, MSCI Rebalance Implications - 13Aug26

  August 13, 2026

• GS - What Matters Today - Equity issuance is a headwind but not a gale^J Equity Vol is Resetting^J Meta Releases Scaled-Down AI Model Consumers for Home Use

  August 10, 2026

• GS - What Matters Today: Momo Selloff as Large as COVID Reopening but Positioning Still High, OpenAI to Release New Model Tomorrow, A Macro Guide to the Micro World - 8Jul26

  July 8, 2026

• GS - What Matters Today S&P 500 Q2 2026 earnings season preview

  June 29, 2026

• GS - What Matters Today NVDA Tonight, HFs Selling US Semis and Buying Asia, Relevant Announcements from Google’s I O - 20May26

  May 20, 2026