US Tariff Impact Tracker

Latest edition · September 8, 2026

US Tariff Impact Tracker Indicated Imports into LA to Increase Next Week Before Turning Negative Two Weeks Out

Goldman Sachs' weekly US Tariff Impact Tracker shows laden container vessels from China to the US rose +23% YoY and Port of LA imports are projected to jump +35% WoW before slowing two weeks out. While tariff uncertainty and earlier demand pull-forward create near-term volatility, the analysts maintain a positive outlook on a 2026 transport volume recovery.

In this edition of the US Tariff Impact Tracker, Goldman Sachs monitors high-frequency freight metrics across ocean, rail, air, and truck modes. Laden vessels from China to the US increased +1% WoW and +23% YoY, while TEU volumes exiting Mainland China rose +4% WoW (+21% YoY). At the Port of Los Angeles, TEUs are projected to rise +35% WoW (+60% YoY) next week before falling -16% WoW two weeks out. Meanwhile, West Coast trucking showed signs of stabilization with load availability up +16% WoW (-13% YoY) and spot rates ex-fuel up +17% YoY. Despite tariff-induced volatility and potential subseasonal peak shipping demand, Goldman Sachs expects volume inflections into 2026 driven by rate cuts, US manufacturing investments, and supply chain re-routing, favoring parcel players UPS and FDX.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Laden container vessels from China to the US rose sequentially (+1% WoW) and +23% YoY, while TEU volumes grew +4% WoW and +21% YoY.
• 2.Port of Los Angeles TEU import flows are expected to jump +35% WoW next week before contracting -16% WoW two weeks out (+60% and +3% YoY, respectively).
• 3.West Coast trucking activity stabilized with weekly load availability rebounding +16% WoW (though -13% YoY) and spot rates ex-fuel up +17% YoY, following a slowdown in July and August.

What this series covers

• Key observations from this past week's report:
• What the Tracker Is:
• 2026 Trade and Transport Scenario Roadmap—Revised From First and Second Edition:
• What to do with Transport stocks:
• High Frequency Weekly Data
• Lagged Monthly Data
• Disclosure Appendix

Edition archive

• US Tariff Impact Tracker Indicated Imports into LA to Increase Next Week Before Turning Negative Two Weeks Out

  September 8, 2026

• US Tariff Impact Tracker Indicated Imports into LA to Dip into Labor Day Before Bouncing Back Two Weeks Out

  August 31, 2026

• US Tariff Impact Tracker Indicated Imports into LA Remain Positive on YOY Basis Over Next Two Weeks

  August 10, 2026

• US Tariff Impact Tracker Imports into LA Mixed But Mostly Positive Over Next Two Weeks

  August 3, 2026

• US Tariff Impact Tracker Imports into LA Mixed Over Next Two Weeks on a YOY Basis

  July 27, 2026

• US Tariff Impact Tracker Import Outlook Remains Positive to End May Lapping Liberation Day(2)

  June 8, 2026