US Daily

Latest edition · September 11, 2026

US Daily Adding a Hike in September

Goldman Sachs has revised its baseline forecast to expect a 25bp interest rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, shifting from a hold. The change is driven by the FOMC's desire to meet market expectations pricing a 90% chance of a hike, despite a weak fundamental economic case for tightening.

Goldman Sachs now anticipates a 25bp rate hike at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, abandoning its prior forecast of no change. Although the latest CPI print only marginally increased the August core PCE forecast to 0.26% without changing the underlying inflation outlook, the Fed is expected to hike to protect its credibility and avoid disruptive market reactions, given that futures markets are already pricing in a nearly 90% probability following Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. However, additional hikes at subsequent meetings are not the baseline scenario, as the economic overshoot appears transitory, core PCE is tracking near 2.5% annualized, and the October meeting immediately precedes the midterm elections.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Goldman Sachs revised its September FOMC expectation to a 25bp hike (from a hold previously) to avoid surprising a market pricing an ~90% probability.
• 2.The fundamental economic case for hiking remains weak, as 2% target overshoots stem from one-time supply shocks that are fading, core PCE is pacing around 2.5% annualized, and the economy is not overheated.
• 3.Additional rate hikes after September are not the baseline; an October hike is unlikely ahead of midterms, and by December improving inflation data and fading shock impacts will make further hikes unnecessary.

What this series covers

• US Daily: Adding a Hike in September
• Adding a Hike in September
• The US Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix

Edition archive

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  September 11, 2026

• US Daily August CPI Preview

  September 8, 2026

• US Daily August Payrolls Preview

  September 3, 2026

• US Daily What’s Driving the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate

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• US Daily GSAI Rises in August

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