Recurring series
Goldman SachsThree Things in China
Finvaulta tracks 4 editions of Three Things in China from Goldman Sachs, published between May 10, 2026 and August 16, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.
Latest edition · August 16, 2026
China Three things in China(24)
Goldman Sachs highlights three key macroeconomic trends in China: slowing bank loan growth despite resilient bond-driven TSF, a persistently strong Q2 current account surplus supporting the case for RMB appreciation, and sluggish early Q3 activity exacerbated by weather disruptions.
In this update, Goldman Sachs outlines three key macro developments in China. First, bank loan growth slowed to 5.2% yoy in July, with bank loans now accounting for only one-third of new TSF flows as government and corporate bonds drive total credit. Second, the Q2 current account surplus remained strong at 3.7% of GDP (up 1 pp yoy), indicating that RMB appreciation and domestic demand stimulus are necessary for external and internal rebalancing. Third, economic activity in early Q3 appears soft, with July industrial production projected to slow to 4.6% yoy, retail sales growth subdued at 1.5% yoy, and Typhoon Dolphin temporarily disrupting August port activity.
Read the latest edition in fullKey takeaways from the latest edition
- 1.Bank loan growth continued to slow in July, with stock growth decelerating to 5.2% yoy and net new flows declining; bank loans now make up only one-third of new TSF flows versus two-thirds historically.
- 2.China's Q2 current account surplus remained solid at 3.7% of GDP, up 1 percentage point compared to Q2 2025, warranting RMB appreciation for external rebalancing alongside domestic demand stimulus for internal rebalancing.
- 3.Q3 activity began softly, with July industrial production expected to slow to 4.6% yoy, retail sales and fixed asset investment remaining sluggish, and Typhoon Dolphin disrupting August port activity.
What this series covers
- Bank loans no longer the dominant driver of TSF growth in China
- China's current account surplus as share of GDP edged down in Q2 but remained solid
- Typhoon Dolphin disrupted port activity in mid-August
- Recent GS China macro research
- The China Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Edition archive
Series at a glance
- Editions tracked
- 4
- First edition
- May 10, 2026
- Latest edition
- August 16, 2026