The World Cup and Economics

Latest edition · July 22, 2026

The World Cup and Economics A Look Back After the 2026 Final

This report evaluates the accuracy of Goldman Sachs' ex ante tournament model following the 2026 World Cup. The model successfully predicted the eventual winner, Spain, and performed with higher predictive accuracy than historical benchmarks.

Goldman Sachs reviews its model-based predictions for the 2026 World Cup, noting high accuracy in identifying semifinalists and the eventual champion, Spain. The authors attribute this success to a robust Elo rating system, augmented by factors like scoring talent and geographical constraints. The report highlights that the tournament, despite being expanded to 48 teams, was more predictable than previous editions, characterized by a record number of goals and thrilling late-game outcomes.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The firm's ex ante model successfully predicted Spain as the tournament winner and identified 3 out of 4 semifinalists.
• 2.The 2026 World Cup was generally more predictable than historical tournaments according to the firm's model, which relies on relative team Elo ratings.
• 3.Expansion of the tournament to 48 teams coincided with a record number of total goals and increased goal-scoring frequency.

What this series covers

• How Accurate Were Our Ex Ante Predictions of the Tournament?
• How Important Were the Explanatory Factors We Considered?
• The Development of Our Model-Implied Winning Probabilities During the Tournament
• Our Single-Game Predictions
• The Biggest Surprises of the Tournament
• Statistical Tidbits About the Tournament
• Looking Ahead

Edition archive

• The World Cup and Economics A Look Back After the 2026 Final

  July 22, 2026

• The World Cup and Economics A Playful Appetizer Ahead of the Main Course (19 July)

  July 19, 2026

• The World Cup and Economics Yet Again (16 July)

  July 16, 2026

• The World Cup and Economics Suerte Y Merino (11 July)

  July 11, 2026

• The World Cup and Economics The French Toast But Survive (05 July)(1)

  July 5, 2026

• The World Cup and Economics Miami Heat, Cold Sweat (04 July)(1)

  July 4, 2026