Oil Analyst

Latest edition · September 26, 2026

Oil Analyst Modeling Potential US Diesel Export Restrictions

Goldman Sachs models the impact of a hypothetical US diesel export ban, finding it would initially lower US diesel prices by $0.25/gal per week while spare storage exists. However, once diesel storage fills in 9–10 weeks, forced refinery run cuts would drive US retail gasoline prices up by $0.30/gal per week and raise ex-US refined product prices.

Although not their base case, Goldman Sachs analyzes a potential 90-day US diesel export ban amid rising retail diesel prices ($6.5/gal) and net exports (1.6mb/d). Initially, domestic retail diesel prices would experience downward pressure of $0.25/gal per week as inventories accumulate. However, because diesel and gasoline are jointly refined, full diesel storage (reached in ~9–10 weeks) would force US refiners to reduce runs by 2.1mb/d, lowering gasoline output and raising US retail gasoline prices by $0.30/gal weekly. Meanwhile, European wholesale diesel prices would climb $3/bbl per week, partially mitigated by European SPR releases. The authors reiterate their recommendation to hedge geopolitical risk via long European gasoline (EBOB Jun27) positions.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.An initial US diesel export ban would place downward pressure of ~$0.25/gallon per week on retail US diesel prices while domestic storage space remains available.
• 2.Once US diesel storage fills (estimated in 9–10 weeks), refiners would be forced to cut runs by ~2.1mb/d, pushing retail gasoline prices up by ~$0.30/gallon per week.
• 3.A ban would raise European wholesale diesel prices by $3/bbl per week (~2%), though European strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases could offset roughly half of this increase.

What this series covers

• #1: Lower US Diesel Prices
• #2: Higher US Prices of Gasoline and Other Refined Oil Products
• #3: Higher Ex-US Diesel Prices
• #4: Prices Reconnect Once Ban Is Lifted
• #5: Reiterating Our Long Positions in European Gasoline Hedging Recommendation
• Appendix Charts:
• Appendix: The Relationship Between Product Inventories and Product Prices

Edition archive

• Oil Analyst Modeling Potential US Diesel Export Restrictions

  September 26, 2026

• Oil Analyst China Crude Imports Will Likely Remain Low For Now

  September 22, 2026

• Oil Analyst Ongoing Disruptions, More Adaptation Nudging Up Our Price Forecast

  September 7, 2026

• Oil Analyst Higher Product Margins for Longer on Higher Outages and Lower Stocks

  August 28, 2026