Latin America Economics Analyst

Latest edition · October 7, 2026

Latin America Economics Analyst Brazil General Election The Right Wins the Night

Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.0% of the first-round vote, leading incumbent President Lula da Silva (45.2%) and establishing himself as the favorite for the October 25 runoff. A concurrent conservative wave handed right and center-right parties control of 57% of the Lower House and 63% of the Senate, reinforcing legislative constraints on fiscal policy regardless of who wins.

In Brazil's October 4 general election, conservative candidates outperformed polling across federal, state, and legislative races. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.0% of valid presidential votes, topping incumbent President Lula da Silva (45.2%) by more than 2.2 million votes and sweeping the South, Southeast, and Center-West regions. In Congress, Bolsonaro's PL party became the largest bench in both chambers, bringing right and center-right representation to 57% in the Lower House and 63% in the Senate. Looking toward the October 25 runoff, prediction markets place over an 85% probability on a Bolsonaro victory. Moving forward, asset price performance and macroeconomic governance will hinge on runoff polling, candidate cabinet selections—most critically the Ministry of Finance—and explicit fiscal commitments.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Flávio Bolsonaro outperformed expectations with 47.0% of the first-round presidential vote against incumbent President Lula da Silva's 45.2%, entering the October 25 runoff as the frontrunner.
• 2.A broad conservative wave expanded right and center-right control to 57% of the Lower House and 63% of the Senate, while pro-Bolsonaro candidates swept key gubernatorial races in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Paraná.
• 3.Regardless of the presidential winner, the executive will face an assertive, fragmented legislature and must negotiate multiparty coalitions with centrist parties to govern and pass fiscal measures.

What this series covers

• The Conservative Right Gained Political Strength
• A Conservative Wave Swept Brazil
• Senator Bolsonaro Would Likely Face More Favorable Governing Conditions
• Market Direction Likely a Function of Runoff Polls and Policy Statements
• Senator Bolsonaro Swept the South and Center-West
• The Lower House Shifted Right
• Right-Wing Parties Gained Ground in the Senate
• Conservative Candidates Also Performed Strongly at the Gubernatorial Level
• Off to the Runoff Race!
• The Post-Election Test
• Latam and Global Macroeconomic Outlook
• Consolidated Latin America Selected Economic Indicators
• Global Macroeconomic Framework
• Latam Country Data Tables
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Chile
• Colombia
• Ecuador
• Mexico
• Peru
• Latam Financial Markets Outlook
• Latam Financial Markets Indicators (2014-2026)
• Key Commodities Prices
• Latin America Swap Rates
• Latin America Forecasts
• The Latin America Economics Team

Edition archive

• Latin America Economics Analyst Brazil General Election The Right Wins the Night

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