Japan Focus of the Week

Latest edition · September 11, 2026

Japan Focus of the Week BOJ MPM, August National CPI

Goldman Sachs forecasts the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% at its September 17–18 meeting, despite recent yen appreciation. However, they push back against market expectations of accelerated consecutive hikes, projecting subsequent hikes in January and July 2027.

Goldman Sachs previews the upcoming September 17–18 Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, forecasting a 25bp rate hike to 1.25%. Analysts note that recent yen appreciation reflects market pricing of hikes and will not prevent the BOJ from acting. They push back on market speculation of consecutive rate hikes in September and October, expecting the next moves in January 2027 and July 2027 (to 1.75%). The report also previews August national CPI, projecting new core CPI to remain flat at +1.9% yoy, and recaps positive Japanese data including revised Q2 real GDP (+1.4% annualized), accelerating July cash wages (+4.7% yoy), and an improved September Reuters Tankan index.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Goldman Sachs forecasts the Bank of Japan will hike its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% at the September 17–18 meeting, arguing recent yen appreciation will not deter tightening.
• 2.A rapid acceleration in rate hikes (such as back-to-back hikes in September and October) is unlikely unless inflation significantly overshoots.
• 3.August national new core CPI is forecast to hold steady at +1.9% yoy, with upward pressures from memory chips, naphtha, and weaker yen offset by declining rice prices.

What this series covers

• Focus Next Week
• This Week's Data and Events
• Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events (September 14 - 18)
• Focus of the Week: September BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting
• This Week's Recap: Economic Events and Data
• Reference: Japan One Month Economic Calendar
• Disclosure Appendix

Edition archive

• Japan Focus of the Week BOJ MPM, August National CPI

  September 11, 2026

• Japan Focus of the Week Q2 GDP Revision, July Wage, August Corporate Goods Prices

  September 4, 2026

• Japan Focus of the Week Q2 MOF Corporate Statistics, July Industrial Production,

  August 28, 2026

• Japan Focus of the Week Q2 GDP, July National CPI, July Trade

  August 14, 2026

• Japan Focus of the Week BOJ Summary of Opinions , July Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index(1)

  August 7, 2026

• Japan Focus of the Week June Wage

  July 31, 2026