Housing and Mortgage Monitor

Latest edition · August 5, 2026

Housing and Mortgage Monitor Geographic dispersion in HPA A feature, not a bug

The U.S. housing market faces historically weak, stable price appreciation driven by affordability pressures. Significant geographic dispersion exists, with high-inventory markets in the South and West seeing price declines while the Northeast and Midwest continue to see gains.

U.S. home price appreciation has remained locked in a 0-2% band for the past year, marking a rare period of stagnation caused by elevated mortgage rates and strained affordability. While national figures are positive, they mask substantial local market divergence; nearly half of the top 50 metro areas are experiencing year-over-year price declines. This regional dispersion is largely driven by inventory dynamics, where markets with greater recent inventory growth—particularly in the South and West—have underperformed. Despite these local headwinds, the overall level of geographic dispersion is consistent with historical norms.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.U.S. home price appreciation (HPA) has stayed within a narrow 0-2% range for 12 months, the longest such stretch since 1993, driven by affordability constraints.
• 2.National HPA figures mask significant local dispersion; 45% of top 50 metro areas currently face negative year-over-year HPA.
• 3.Inventory growth is the primary driver of regional performance differences; higher inventory in the South and West correlates with price declines.

What this series covers

• Housing Forecasts and Key Charts
• Economic growth remains positive year over year
• US housing affordability is still poor
• Home sales volume has fallen
• Supply of completed homes remains constrained
• 33% of new GSE purchase mortgages have DTI above 43%
• Homeownership rates have ticked down in Q22026
• Sequential home price growth has slowed
• Most US metros are seeing home price growth stabilize
• Household balance sheet metrics remain resilient
• Subprime auto ABS losses have grown
• 2.2% of mortgaged properties have negative equity
• 30-year FNMA prepayment rates were down 11% in May vs. April
• Conventional MBS prepayment rates decreased for higher coupons in June vs. May
• High coupon Ginnie Mae prepayments decreased month-on-month
• About 4% of mortgage borrowers are in-the-money for refinancing
• The Federal Reserve's agency MBS assets remain below $2.0 trillion
• Agency MBS valuations have improved recently
• CMBS delinquency rates remain contained despite challenging CRE fundamentals
• High CMBS note rates will be an obstacle to debt refinancing
• Apartment property prices have declined
• CMBS spreads have tightened

Edition archive

• Housing and Mortgage Monitor Geographic dispersion in HPA A feature, not a bug

  August 5, 2026

• HOUSING AND MORTGAGE MONITOR Concessions granted, Housing Act planted

  July 1, 2026

• Housing and Mortgage Monitor Manufacturing a solution to the housing shortage

  June 5, 2026

• Housing and Mortgage Monitor Manufacturing a solution to the housing shortage

  June 4, 2026

• Housing and Mortgage Monitor Not our neighbor’s housing market

  May 10, 2026