GS Economic Indicators Update

Latest edition · October 5, 2026

Global GS Economic Indicators Update Activity Turned Down in Brazil in September

Goldman Sachs' weekly economic indicators report shows that Brazilian economic activity turned into a slight contraction in September, with the Brazil CAI down 1.6 pp to -0.7% annualized. Meanwhile, global financial conditions tightened by 6.2 bps last week, even as overall global activity remains above potential at +3.3%.

In this weekly proprietary indicators monitor, Goldman Sachs highlights a sharp deceleration in Brazil, where the Current Activity Indicator (CAI) dropped 1.6 pp to -0.7% MoM annualized in September, indicating a slight contraction. Conversely, global activity remains resilient at +3.3%, supported by the US (+3.5%) and strong emerging market momentum in India (+7.3%) and China (+5.3%). Global financial conditions (ex Russia) tightened by 6.2 bps over the week, driven principally by equities, while growth revisions across Asia over the past 60 days have remained positive.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Brazil's Current Activity Indicator (CAI) dropped into contractionary territory in September, falling by 1.6 pp week-over-week to -0.7% MoM annualized.
• 2.Global Financial Conditions tightened by 6.2 basis points over the prior week (excluding Russia), primarily driven by equities.
• 3.Global growth remains solid and notably above potential, with the Global Spot CAI standing at +3.3% MoM annualized in September.

What this series covers

• Chart of the Week
• Key FCI and Growth Charts
• Key Wage and Price Inflation Charts
• Detailed Indicators Update
• Financial Conditions Index (FCI)
• FCI Impulses
• Current Activity Indicator (CAI)
• MAP
• Trimmed Core Inflation
• Inflation Surprise Index
• Wage Trackers
• Top-Down Fiscal Impulses
• Output Gaps
• GS Forecasts vs. Consensus
• Methodology Notes for GS Proprietary Economic Indicators

Edition archive

• Global GS Economic Indicators Update Activity Turned Down in Brazil in September

  October 5, 2026

• USA GS Economic Indicators Update(26)

  October 5, 2026

• Global GS Economic Indicators Update Global Financial Conditions Tighten in September

  September 28, 2026

• USA GS Economic Indicators Update(25)

  September 28, 2026

• Global GS Economic Indicators Update Current Activity in DMs Above Potential

  September 21, 2026

• USA GS Economic Indicators Update(24)

  September 21, 2026