Global Markets Daily

Latest edition · September 11, 2026

Global Markets Daily US Debt Issuance—Limited Evidence of a Duration Supply Imbalance

Longer-term USD bond net supply is projected to reach record notional levels of $2.6tn in 2026 and $2.85tn in 2027, driven primarily by corporate IG issuance to finance AI and capital investment. However, supply remains stable relative to GDP, and empirical evidence shows no persistent dislocation in UST yields or MBS spreads from large issuance events.

Goldman Sachs finds that despite rising USD bond supply poised to reach record nominal amounts ($2.6tn net in 2026 and $2.85tn in 2027; gross 10y equivalents of $5.0tn and $5.2tn), duration supply is roughly stable as a share of nominal GDP at 8%–8.5% net and 15%–15.5% gross. The surge in corporate IG borrowing to finance private investment and AI has generated inquiries regarding duration absorption. While large non-financial IG pricings create transient intraday upward pressure on 30y Treasury yields, the effect fades over a one-week horizon, and deviations from fair-value models remain contained. Similarly, MBS spreads are primarily linked to Treasury yield changes rather than corporate issuance, leading analysts to conclude that duration supply alone is not destabilizing core fixed-income markets.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Longer-term USD bond supply is projected to hit record notional highs of $2.6tn in 2026 and $2.85tn in 2027, but remains within post-pandemic norms when normalized as a percentage of nominal GDP (8% to 8.5%).
• 2.Large non-financial IG issuance pushes long-end UST yields higher on pricing days, but there is little evidence of a persistent or reliable supply dislocation over a one-week horizon.
• 3.The impact of large IG issuance on MBS spreads is limited; current-coupon MBS OAS correlates much more strongly with Treasury yield moves than with IG corporate credit spreads.

What this series covers

• US Debt Issuance—Limited Evidence of a Duration Supply Imbalance
• Context on the USD Bond Supply Picture
• Evidence of Supply Impact onto UST Yields and MBS Spreads
• TRADE IDEAS
• Best Trade Ideas Across Assets
• Disclosure Appendix

Edition archive

• Global Markets Daily US Debt Issuance—Limited Evidence of a Duration Supply Imbalance

  September 11, 2026

• Global Markets Daily AI Funding Needs and Strong Demand Fuel Record Convertible Supply

  September 9, 2026

• Global Markets Daily Assessing Sensitivity of EM European Equities to Natural Gas Shocks

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• Global Markets Daily AI Haves vs. Have Nots Drive Divergence in Asian FX

  September 1, 2026

• Global Markets Daily G10 Rates Views—Shallow Relief For Long End Woes

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