Global FX Trader

Latest edition · September 4, 2026

Global FX Trader Is This For Real

Goldman Sachs analyzes global currency dynamics, highlighting strengthening cases for tactically long JPY and short USD/JPY as domestic policy and potential Japanese pension allocation shifts align. The analysts recommend tactical trades including short EUR/AUD, long INR/IDR, and short SGD/CNH.

In this edition of Global FX Trader, Goldman Sachs highlights shifting policy dynamics supporting the Japanese Yen, arguing that short USD/JPY is an increasingly attractive hedge given BoJ hike pricing, potential GPIF domestic asset reallocation, and ongoing intervention threats. While the US Dollar faces binary risk from the September FOMC meeting and incoming inflation data, its downside is cushioned by energy and carry advantages. Meanwhile, persistent European energy terms-of-trade pressures reinforce the Euro's appeal as a funding currency. Tactically, Goldman Sachs recommends going short EUR/AUD, long INR/IDR, and short SGD/CNH to express relative carry, terms-of-trade divergence, and gradual CNY appreciation.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Short USD/JPY has become a compelling hedge for pro-risk portfolios due to potential BoJ rate hikes, intervention risks, and speculation around domestic GPIF reallocations.
• 2.USD direction hinges closely on August inflation data and the upcoming September FOMC meeting debate, though supportive energy and carry dynamics limit broad Dollar downside.
• 3.EUR remains constrained by energy terms of trade pressures as natural gas exceeds €70/MWh, reinforcing its suitability as a funding currency.

What this series covers

• Our thoughts on JPY, USD, EUR, AUD & NZD, CAD & NJA FX
• JPY: This is how it would start.
• USD: Family fight.
• EUR: Gas-capped, Dollar-bound.
• AUD & NZD: Going global—go short EUR/AUD.
• CAD: A hawkish pivot.
• NJA FX: Two themes and two trades—long INR/IDR and short SGD/CNH.
• Global FX Forecasts
• Return Forecasts & Valuations
• Disclosure Appendix

Edition archive

• Global FX Trader Is This For Real

  September 4, 2026

• Global FX Trader Reasons, Meet Resolve

  August 28, 2026

• Global FX Trader Get JPY With A Little Help From My Friends

  August 7, 2026

• Global FX Trader Carry, With Energy

  July 24, 2026

• GLOBAL FX TRADER Dollar in a Collar

  June 12, 2026

• Global FX Trader Divergence Dialed Up

  May 24, 2026