Global Economics Comment

Latest edition · October 2, 2026

Global Economics Comment Who Would Be Exposed to a Ban on US Diesel Exports

A US diesel export ban would temporarily lower US diesel prices and headline inflation, but would turn inflationary after about two months as storage constraints drive up gasoline prices. Internationally, Latin America is most vulnerable with GDP risks around 1%, while global headline inflation would rise roughly 0.1pp for each 10% sustained rise in ex-US diesel prices.

Goldman Sachs evaluates the potential global growth and inflation fallout from a hypothetical US diesel export ban. Domestically, the ban would initially reduce retail diesel prices by $0.25/gallon weekly, reducing US headline inflation by 2-3bp after one month; however, once diesel storage fills after 9-10 weeks, refiners would curtail runs, boosting gasoline prices by $0.30/gallon weekly and making the net effect inflationary after two months. Internationally, direct GDP vulnerability is concentrated in Latin America—especially Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru, where US imports exceed 50% of consumption—potentially cutting regional GDP by ~1%. Elsewhere, global diesel prices would likely climb ~2% weekly, lifting global headline inflation by 0.1pp per 10% diesel price gain, hitting European headline inflation and Asian core inflation most acutely.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.A US diesel export ban would temporarily lower US retail diesel prices by $0.25/gallon per week, creating a 2-3bp drag on headline inflation after a month, but would turn inflationary after ~2 months as diesel storage exhausts after 9-10 weeks, raising retail gasoline prices by $0.3/gallon per week.
• 2.Latin America faces the largest direct downside growth risks, where US imports account for over 50% of diesel consumption in Ecuador, Chile, Mexico, and Peru, and a sudden cutoff could lower Latin American GDP by ~1%.
• 3.Outside the Americas, direct activity impacts would be limited, but global headline inflation would rise by 0.1pp and core inflation by 0.03pp for each sustained 10% increase in diesel prices, led by higher headline impacts in Europe and core impacts in Asia.

What this series covers

• Who Would Be Exposed to a Ban on US Diesel Exports?

Edition archive

• Global Economics Comment Who Would Be Exposed to a Ban on US Diesel Exports

  October 2, 2026

• Global Economics Comment Central Bank Conversations Affect Policy Calibration

  September 29, 2026

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