First Take

Latest edition · September 24, 2026

Hennes & Mauritz (HMb(1)

H&M reported 3Q26 cFX revenue growth of +1% and reported EBIT of SKr 6,037mn, which was broadly in line with consensus at c.SKr 5,122mn when stripping out ~160bps of one-off tariff refunds. Goldman Sachs maintains its Sell rating and SKr 145 price target given sluggish September trading (+1% cFX) and expected markdown headwinds in 4Q26.

H&M posted 3Q26 cFX sales growth of +1% yoy, in line with consensus, with revenue reaching SKr 57.19bn. While reported gross margin increased 110bps to 54.0% and reported EBIT reached SKr 6,037mn, results were supported by approximately 160bps of non-recurring tariff refunds; excluding these, EBIT was c.SKr 5,122mn versus consensus of SKr 5,144mn. Inventory levels grew 9% cFX yoy to 17.8% of rolling sales. Furthermore, September trading indicates +1% cFX sales against a 4Q consensus expectation of +1.7%, while extended promotional periods are set to push markdown costs higher in 4Q. Consequently, Goldman Sachs reiterates its Sell rating with an unchanged 12-month DCF price target of SKr 145 (12.8% downside).

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.3Q26 EBIT of SKr 6,037mn was in line with consensus (SKr 5,144mn) on an underlying basis at c.SKr 5,122mn after excluding a c.160bps one-off benefit from tariff refunds.
• 2.Current trading in September shows cFX sales up +1%, trailing the 4Q26 consensus expectation of +1.7%, with markdown costs expected to increase in 4Q26 due to calendar timing.
• 3.Inventory levels expanded +9% cFX yoy (+4% in SEK), rising to 17.8% of rolling 12-month sales compared to 16.4% in 3Q25.

What this series covers

• Exhibit 1: GSe vs Consensus vs Actuals
• Key risks/what would make us more positive:

Edition archive

• Hennes & Mauritz (HMb(1)

  September 24, 2026

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• Ollie's Bargain Outlet Inc. (OLLI) First Take 2Q26 earnings miss, FY26 top line guidance lowered

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• Williams Sonoma Inc

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