European Daily

Latest edition · October 7, 2026

European Daily France—What We Learned From Rassemblement National’s Recent Economic Proposals

Goldman Sachs analyzes Rassemblement National's newly proposed counter-budget and medium-term fiscal framework as Marine Le Pen leads presidential polling. While the proposals demonstrate an intent to stabilize French finances, the targets rely on optimistic growth projections and face steep implementation hurdles.

With Marine Le Pen favored to win France's next presidential election, Goldman Sachs evaluates Rassemblement National's (RN) economic proposals, including a 2027 counter-budget, a medium-term debt reduction path to 2032, and a constitutional fiscal 'golden rule.' RN proposes cutting the primary deficit from -2.6% to -0.6% of GDP next year and reducing debt-to-GDP to 112% by 2032. Goldman Sachs finds these targets overly optimistic—predicting French debt will instead reach 125% of GDP by 2032—due to standard fiscal multiplier drags, dubious assumptions regarding EU transfer cuts, and unprecedented referendum-based fiscal escape clauses.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Rassemblement National's 'counter-budget' proposal aims to improve the primary balance from -2.6% to -0.6% of GDP next year via spending cuts, but faces severe implementation challenges and growth headwinds.
• 2.RN's medium-term trajectory projecting public debt falling to 112% of GDP by 2032 relies on overly optimistic growth assumptions (accelerating to 1.8%); Goldman Sachs forecasts debt reaching 125% of GDP.
• 3.Marine Le Pen proposes a constitutional fiscal 'golden rule' requiring annual 0.5pp GDP improvement, but its escape clause mechanics via referendum are unprecedented internationally.

What this series covers

• Clues from the “Counter-Budget”
• Questions Around the Medium-Term Trajectory
• Towards a Fiscal "Golden Rule"
• Incremental Information

Edition archive

• European Daily France—What We Learned From Rassemblement National’s Recent Economic Proposals

  October 7, 2026

• European Daily France—Tighter Financial Conditions, Slower Growth

  October 2, 2026

• European Daily France—An Increasingly Challenging Debt Trajectory

  September 24, 2026

• European Daily Riksbank and Norges Bank Diverging Once More

  September 21, 2026

• European Daily BoE Recap—Opening the Door to a November Hike

  September 17, 2026

• European Daily BoE Preview—Holding in September, Hiking in November

  September 14, 2026