Europe Paper & Forest Products

Latest edition · October 1, 2026

Europe Paper & Forest Products Chinese boxboard reaches 14 of EU consumption

Goldman Sachs has expanded its boxboard tracker to include additional Chinese export codes, revealing that Chinese boxboard imports now represent ~14% of European consumption. This influx exacerbates European market oversupply, keeping the analysts cautious on cartonboard pricing and reinforcing their Sell rating on Stora Enso.

Following industry discussions, Goldman Sachs updated its tracker for Chinese boxboard exports to encompass previously untracked HS export classifications, showing that annualized YTD shipments to Europe have reached ~1,200kt, or c.14% of European consumption. With Chinese producers benefiting from a wide price discount and low cost structure, supply in Europe is expected to exceed demand by ~85ktpa in 2026 even before the start-up of Stora Enso's 750ktpa Oulu mill. Consequently, Goldman Sachs reiterates a Sell rating on Stora Enso (€9 12-month price target), noting that consensus EBITDA estimates for its Consumer Packaging unit remain 13%-14% too high for FY27/28E.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Chinese boxboard exports to Europe are tracking at approximately 14% of European consumption (~1,200kt annualized) after incorporating previously untracked export HS codes.
• 2.European boxboard supply is projected to outpace demand by ~85ktpa in 2026 even before factoring in the ramp-up of Stora Enso's 750ktpa Oulu mill.
• 3.Stora Enso is viewed as the most vulnerable European producer to boxboard pricing pressure, supporting Goldman Sachs' Sell rating and €9 price target.

What this series covers

• Chinese boxboard exports to Europe tracking at 14% of consumption
• August global boxboard exports from China were down ~4% from the prior year.
• Valuation & key risks
• Stora Enso

Edition archive

• Europe Paper & Forest Products Chinese boxboard reaches 14 of EU consumption

  October 1, 2026

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