EM Weekly Kickstart

Latest edition · October 2, 2026

EM Weekly Kickstart MSCI EM fell 1 w w led by EM Europe amid rising bond yield worries

MSCI EM declined 1.2% w/w pressured by rising US bond yields, with foreign institutional investors pulling US$10.5bn, primarily from Korea and India. Goldman Sachs remains procyclical and overweight Tech Hardware, Banks, Capital Goods, and Metals & Mining, favoring Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, South Africa, Hungary, and Greece.

Emerging market equities retreated 1.2% week-on-week as rising US 10-year Treasury yields created headwinds across rate-sensitive markets such as Hungary (-10%), Chile (-5%), and the Philippines (-4%), while foreign investors pulled US$10.5bn out of EM. Despite near-term volatility and recent sideways trading in 3Q, EM valuations sit at an attractive 9.7x forward P/E (-2.2 standard deviations below 10-year average). Ahead of Brazil's presidential election, Goldman Sachs highlights an asymmetric opportunity in Brazilian rate-sensitive domestic equities, which trade at 10x forward P/E with a rate beta 2-3x the headline index. Overall, GS strategy remains overweight Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, South Africa, Hungary, and Greece, maintaining a procyclical sector tilt.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.MSCI EM fell 1.2% w/w driven by concerns over rising US bond yields, with heavy pullbacks in rate-sensitive markets like Hungary, Chile, and the Philippines, while Brazil gained 1% ahead of elections.
• 2.Brazilian equities offer an asymmetric risk/reward setup into election resolution, where rate-sensitive domestic equities trade at discounted valuations (10x P/E) and exhibit 2-3x rate beta to lower domestic yields.
• 3.Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight allocation on Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, South Africa, Hungary, and Greece, and is overweight procyclical sectors including Tech Hardware & Semis, Banks, Capital Goods, and Metals & Mining.

What this series covers

• Focus: Brazil Elections ahead
• Focus: 3Q Performance Recap
• Focus: Scope for large post-election moves in Brazilian equities; Current set-up asymmetric for rate-sensitives
• Focus: US Bond Yields Spike
• Allocation and Key Market Views
• Performance Snapshot: Regions, Markets, Commodities and FX
• Leaders & Laggards
• Market Breadth, Concentration and Volatility
• Earnings Revisions
• Valuations in Context
• Fund Flows and Liquidity
• Style Monitor
• Brazil Rate Sensitivity
• CEEMEA Implementations
• Macro Forecasts

Edition archive

• EM Weekly Kickstart MSCI EM fell 1 w w led by EM Europe amid rising bond yield worries

  October 2, 2026

• EM Weekly Kickstart MSCI EM gained 1

  September 25, 2026

• EM Weekly Kickstart MSCI EM closed flat w w amid rate oil risks

  September 4, 2026

• EM Weekly Kickstart MSCI EM fell 2 w w

  June 6, 2026

• EM Weekly Kickstart MSCI EM rallied 8 w w led by North Asia

  May 10, 2026