Consumer Morning Trading Update

Latest edition · July 2, 2026

GS Consumer Morning Trading Update (US)

US equity futures traded mixed ahead of the June NFP release and Fed rate expectations, with High Beta Momentum recovering from a severe -9.62% drop. GS highlights a tactical short view on Low-Income Consumer Discretionary (GSXULOWD) and details Kroger's $1.65bn acquisition of Giant Eagle.

In pre-market trading on July 2, 2026, US equity futures were mixed as markets braced for the June nonfarm payrolls report (GIR estimating +130k) and evaluated a ~30% probability of a July Fed rate hike. Market sentiment remains fragile following a 9.62% plunge in High Beta Momentum. In the consumer space, the trading desk recommends shorting the Low-Income Consumer Discretionary basket (GSXULOWD) ahead of earnings due to unhedged oil and inflation risks. Key single-stock developments include Kroger's $1.65bn acquisition of Giant Eagle, American Eagle Outfitters' CFO succession announcement while reaffirming 2026 guidance, and an overweight initiation on On Holding (ONON) by JPMorgan.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Macro focus is centered on June nonfarm payrolls (GIR estimate +130k) and potential Fed repricing (~30% probability of a July rate hike), following a severe High Beta Momentum drawdown (-9.62%).
• 2.Goldman Sachs desk tactically recommends shorting Low-Income Consumer Discretionary (GSXULOWD) due to underappreciated inflation and higher oil price impacts on upcoming earnings.
• 3.Kroger announced an agreement to acquire regional grocer Giant Eagle for $1.65bn ($1.25bn cash and ~$400mn assumed liabilities), expected to close in 2027 and be accretive in year two.

What this series covers

• Pre-Market - Movers and Most Active
• Retail
• Thematics/Baskets
• GS Research
• Street Actions
• Calendar
• Performance
• Daily Recap

Edition archive

• GS Consumer Morning Trading Update (US)

  July 2, 2026

• GS Consumer Morning Trading Update (US)

  July 1, 2026

• GS Consumer | Morning Trading Update (US)

  June 29, 2026

• GS Consumer Morning Trading Update (US)

  May 20, 2026