CEEMEA Week Ahead

Latest edition · September 4, 2026

CEEMEA Week Ahead CBR to Cut 25bp, NBP and TCMB on Hold

Goldman Sachs previews the CEEMEA week ahead, anticipating rate decisions from Poland (hold at 3.75%), Türkiye (hold at 37.00%), and Russia (a 25bp cut to 13.75%). The report also outlines key regional CPI releases and maintains a bullish macro conviction on South African Government Bonds (SAGBs).

In the upcoming week across CEEMEA, monetary policy committees meet in Poland, Türkiye, and Russia. Goldman Sachs expects the NBP to hold at 3.75% following recent fuel-driven inflation rises, the TCMB to hold at 37.00% as return to repo funding reflects normalisation rather than renewed easing, and the CBR to continue cutting by 25bp to 13.75% supported by stabilizing inflation and falling household inflation expectations. August CPI releases across Hungary, Egypt, Ukraine, Romania, and Russia will demonstrate heterogeneous price pressures. In addition, the analysts reiterate a bullish conviction view on South African Government Bonds (SAGBs), expecting yields to grind lower as authorities restore fiscal credibility and rating agencies potentially lift the country's sovereign rating.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The Bank of Russia (CBR) is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp to 13.75%, while Poland's NBP and Türkiye's TCMB are expected to remain on hold at 3.75% and 37.00% respectively.
• 2.Inflation prints across the region show mixed trends: rising in Egypt, Ukraine, and Russia, while falling in Romania and holding broadly stable at low levels in Hungary and Czechia.
• 3.Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish conviction view on South African Government Bonds (SAGBs) as fiscal credibility improves and potential credit rating upgrades from S&P and Moody's approach over the coming year.

What this series covers

• CEEMEA Week Ahead: CBR to Cut 25bp, NBP and TCMB on Hold; CPI Across the Region; GDP in ZA; CA in TR
• Poland: NBP to Remain on Hold at +3.75% as Inflation Rises
• Türkiye: TCMB to Remain on Hold at 37.00%, with Risks Skewed Towards a Small Cut
• Russia: CBR to Cut by Another 25bp as Inflation Stabilises
• Hungary: Headline CPI Broadly Stable at +1.2%yoy, Well Below MNB’s Forecast
• Egypt: Inflation to Rise from +14.9%yoy to +15.2%yoy, Driven by Energy Prices
• Ukraine: Inflation to Increase by 0.8pp to +8.5%yoy
• Romania: Inflation to Decline from +8.2%yoy to +6.5%yoy in August
• South Africa: Q2 GDP to Increase +0.1%qoq (SARB: +0.1%qoq; consensus: -0.1%qoq)
• Türkiye: The Current Account to Swing into a Small Surplus in July Reflecting Lower Core goods Imports and Seasonally Higher Tourism Revenue
• Exhibit 3: Weekly Calendar
• Conviction Macro Views
• South Africa: Constructive on SAGBs as Authorities Restore Fiscal Credibility
• The CEEMEA Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix

Edition archive

• CEEMEA Week Ahead CBR to Cut 25bp, NBP and TCMB on Hold

  September 4, 2026

• CEEMEA Week Ahead NBK to Cut by 75bp, BoI on Hold

  August 28, 2026

• CEEMEA Week Ahead NBR and CBK on Hold

  August 7, 2026

• CEEMEA Week Ahead CNB To Hold

  July 31, 2026

• CEEMEA Week Ahead NBU to Hike by 50bp

  July 24, 2026

• CEEMEA Week Ahead NBU on Hold, CNB to Hike by 25bp, CBR to Cut by 50bp

  June 12, 2026