CEEMEA Inflation Monitor

Latest edition · July 23, 2026

CEEMEA Inflation Monitor Headline Inflation Falls and Surprises to the Downside Again in June Mostly Owing to Non-Core Factors

Headline inflation declined across most CEEMEA countries in June, frequently surprising analysts to the downside. Core inflationary pressures, however, remain largely stable across the region.

This report details June inflation data for key CEEMEA economies. Headline inflation fell in most markets, driven by non-core components, leading to widespread downside surprises relative to consensus. Exceptions included South Africa, Ghana, and Russia, where inflation rose. Core inflation, assessed via the GS TRIM measure, showed broad stability, though domestic inflationary pressures remain divergent across the region. Looking ahead, global factors may place upward pressure on food inflation in the second half of 2026, though local supply and currency impacts will likely dictate individual country outcomes.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Headline inflation fell across most of the CEEMEA region in June, largely driven by non-core factors, with downside surprises in most countries.
• 2.Core inflation, measured by the GS TRIM, remained broadly unchanged across most tracked economies.
• 3.The report suggests global food inflation faces potential upward pressure of ~2pp in H2 2026, though impacts will vary by local market dynamics.

What this series covers

• Headline Inflation Falls and Surprises to the Downside Again in June
• Core Inflation Broadly Unchanged; Domestic Inflationary Pressures Diverge
• Modelling the Drivers of EM Food Inflation
• Czechia: Headline Inflation Declines Further, in Large Downside Surprise
• Hungary: Inflation Declines and Surprises Expectations Materially to the Downside
• Poland: Inflation Falls to +2.5%yoy in June, Below Expectations
• Romania: Inflation Declines to +10.4%yoy in June
• Russia: Inflation Rises From +5.3%yoy to +6.0% in June
• Turkiye: Headline Inflation Declines, Broadly in Line With Consensus Expectations
• Israel: Headline Inflation Declines by 0.3pp to +1.6%yoy
• Ukraine: Inflation Declines and Surprises to the Downside on Food, But Core Remains Elevated
• South Africa: Inflation Rises and Surprises Significantly to the Upside in June
• Egypt: Inflation Declines by 0.3pp to +14.3%yoy, in a Large Downside Surprise
• Ghana: Inflation Increases to 5.3%yoy in June, Owing To Unfavourable Base Effects
• Kenya: Headline Inflation Fell by 0.3pp in June, Surprising Significantly To The Downside

Edition archive

• CEEMEA Inflation Monitor Headline Inflation Falls and Surprises to the Downside Again in June Mostly Owing to Non-Core Factors

  July 23, 2026

• CEEMEA INFLATION MONITOR Inflation Mostly Below Expectations Again; Impact of Energy Crisis More Limited than Feared

  June 18, 2026

• CEEMEA Inflation Monitor Inflation Generally Higher in April Due to Energy Prices

  May 21, 2026