Australian and New Zealand Inflation Monitor

Latest edition · September 19, 2026

Australian and New Zealand Inflation Monitor Monthly Inflation to Moderate in August Despite Rebound in Fuel

Goldman Sachs forecasts Australia's August headline CPI to increase 0.5% mom to 4.0% yoy, driven by a 14.0% rebound in fuel prices, while trimmed mean remains at 3.6% yoy. Consequently, the authors expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25bp to 4.60% at its September meeting.

Following stronger-than-expected July inflation in Australia where trimmed mean held at 3.6% yoy and price pressures broadened, Goldman Sachs projects August headline CPI to rise 0.5% mom, taking annual headline inflation up 50bp to 4.0% yoy. The monthly acceleration is predominantly driven by a 14.0% surge in automotive fuel following the unwinding of the fuel excise cut and higher global crude prices, partially offset by a 4.8% decline in domestic travel. Ahead of this data, Goldman Sachs expects the RBA Board to pre-emptively lift the cash rate by 25bp to 4.60%. In New Zealand, partial monthly CPI indicators rose 0.1% mom (4.2% yoy), keeping 3Q headline CPI tracking at 0.53% qoq (3.6% yoy).

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Australia headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.5% mom in August, pushing year-over-year inflation up 50bp to 4.0% yoy, largely driven by a 14.0% mom surge in automotive fuel.
• 2.Goldman Sachs expects the RBA to implement a pre-emptive 25bp rate hike to 4.60% at its September Board meeting ahead of the August CPI release.
• 3.Australia 3Q2026 trimmed mean inflation forecast was revised up to 0.93% qoq (above the RBA's 0.83% qoq projection) following broader July price pressures.

What this series covers

• Australia
• Automotive fuel and transport
• Airfares and holiday travel
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages
• Housing
• Market services
• Administered prices
• Inflation expectations
• New Zealand

Edition archive

• Australian and New Zealand Inflation Monitor Monthly Inflation to Moderate in August Despite Rebound in Fuel

  September 19, 2026

• Australian and New Zealand Inflation Monitor: Further Indirect Effects From Higher Oil Prices Expected in May

  June 17, 2026

• Australian and New Zealand Inflation Monitor Indirect Effects From Higher Oil Prices Expected to Show in April

  May 21, 2026