Americas Retail: Supermarkets

Latest edition · September 11, 2026

Americas Retail Supermarkets Food at home inflation decelerated to +2.2 in August

August U.S. food-at-home CPI decelerated to +2.2% year-over-year from +2.7% in July, below the historical average of +2.5%. However, leading agricultural commodity and COGS indicators suggest stable to slightly accelerating grocery inflation over the next six months, maintaining a favorable environment for grocery retailers.

U.S. food-at-home (FAH) CPI slowed to +2.2% y/y in August from +2.7% in July, below the long-term average of +2.5%, driven by deceleration in fruits, vegetables, proteins, non-alcoholic beverages, and cereal/bakery, while dairy accelerated. Relative value between grocery and dining out widened to -1.2% in favor of grocers as restaurant inflation outpaced grocery prices. Leading indicators, including the S&P GSCI Ag & Livestock Index and the GS Food COGS Index, point to stable to slightly accelerating food-at-home inflation over the next six months. Coupled with a widened CPI-PPI spread (+0.5%), the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for supermarket retailer margins and share performance.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.August food-at-home (FAH) CPI decelerated to +2.2% y/y from +2.7% in July, falling below the long-term average of +2.5%, led by deceleration in fruits/vegetables, protein, beverages, and cereal/bakery, while dairy accelerated.
• 2.Relative price value continues to favor grocers over restaurants with a -1.2% gap in August, even though July PCE data showed a 40 bps y/y wallet share shift away from grocers toward restaurants.
• 3.Leading indicators, including the S&P GSCI Ag & Livestock Index and the GS Food COGS Index, suggest stable to slightly accelerating FAH CPI over the next six months, an environment historically supportive of grocery stock outperformance.

What this series covers

• Food-at-home inflation decelerated
• Exhibit 1: FAH CPI decelerated in August
• Relative value remained in favor of Grocery over Restaurants
• Exhibit 2: Relative value remained in favor of Grocers in August
• Exhibit 3: Restaurants gained wallet share from grocers in July
• Leading indicators suggest stable to slightly accelerating FAH CPI over the next six months
• Exhibit 4: S&P GSCI Ag & Livestock Index suggests stable to slightly accelerating FAH CPI over the next six months
• Exhibit 5: The GS Food COGS Index suggests stable to slightly accelerating FAH CPI over the next six months
• CPI-PPI spread slightly widened in August
• Exhibit 6: The CPI-PPI spread slightly widened in August

Edition archive

• Americas Retail Supermarkets Food at home inflation decelerated to +2.2 in August

  September 11, 2026

• Americas Retail Supermarkets September grocery pricing survey shows relatively stable prices sequentially

  September 10, 2026

• Americas Retail Supermarkets 2Q consumer survey reveals focus on price remains elevated

  July 21, 2026