Agriculture Analyst

Latest edition · October 1, 2026

Agriculture Analyst Cocoa Is This The 2023 24 Rally All Over Again

Cocoa prices face renewed upside risk as forecasts of a Super El Niño threaten West African production amid low inventories and reduced scope for further demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs does not expect a repeat of the 2023-24 five-fold price rally, as a financial futures liquidity squeeze is not their base case.

Cocoa prices have rebounded sharply since April as forecasts of a potential Super El Niño revive memories of the 2023-24 rally. The physical market is vulnerable: West Africa produces ~65% of global output, current weather patterns mirror the excessive rain followed by dryness seen in 2023-24, swollen shoot disease continues to impair tree yields, and buffer inventories remain low with limited room for incremental demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs argues that the 2023-24 price spike to over $12,500/tonne was heavily amplified by an unprecedented breakdown in futures market liquidity and repeated exchange margin hikes. With improved risk-management safeguards across exchanges, a comparable liquidity squeeze is not expected, dampening the potential magnitude of any rally.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Cocoa prices face substantial physical upside risk as forecasts of a potential Super El Niño threaten the West African harvest (which accounts for ~65% of global supply).
• 2.The physical market is less prepared to buffer a crop failure than in 2023-24, due to lower visible inventories and the fact that significant demand destruction and manufacturer reformulations have already taken place.
• 3.A repeat of the five-fold price explosion seen in 2023-24 is not the base case because the extreme futures liquidity breakdown and margin-call spiral are unlikely to recur with the same magnitude.

What this series covers

• Cocoa: Is This The 2023-24 Rally All Over Again?
• A Super El Niño Could Tighten the Physical Cocoa Market, Potentially Even More Than in 2024
• Cocoa Requires Stable Weather Conditions... Which a Super El Niño Can Disrupt
• The Main West African Growing Season Has So Far Tracked the 2023-24 Pattern of Excessive Rainfall Followed by Dryness ...
• ... And, Like in 2023-24, Swollen Shoot Disease Continues to Weigh on West African Cocoa Supply
• A History Plagued By Disease
• But This Time, the Physical Market May Be Less Prepared Than in 2024
• Yet, We Do Not Expect a Repeat of the Extraordinary 2023-24 Rally As a Financial Liquidity Squeeze Is Not Our Base Case

Edition archive

• Agriculture Analyst Cocoa Is This The 2023 24 Rally All Over Again

  October 1, 2026

• Higher Barriers to Trade

  September 7, 2026

• Agriculture Analyst Super El Niño Poses Risk to Concentrated Sugar Market What to Watch

  September 2, 2026