Report published September 1, 2026
Sasol Ltd. (SOLJ.J): FY26 Earnings Call & Roundtable Takeaways – Goldman Sachs
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 31, 2026
Authors / editors: Faisal AlAzmeh, Roman Reshetnev, Fadi Bataineh, Swarnilee Patra
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Sasol Ltd. and increases its 12-month target price to R198 from R174 following FY26 results. The revision incorporates higher FY27-29E EBITDA estimates due to improved Natref refining margins, Secunda coal destoning throughput gains, and stronger International Chemicals performance.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Sasol while raising its 12-month SOTP price target from R174 to R198 (implying ~2% upside) on rolled-forward 2028E EV/EBITDA of 3.6x.
- 2.FY27-29E EBITDA estimates are raised by ~5.0% on average (FY27E up ~11.5%) and EPS by ~10.6% on average, driven by stronger Natref refining margins, improved Secunda coal quality/throughput via destoning, and better International Chemicals margins.
- 3.FY26 results benefited from non-recurring macro factors and the absence of shutdowns, reducing the SA breakeven to US$49/bbl, but management guides FY27 breakeven to normalize to US$53-58/bbl.
Table of Contents
- GS View
- Management FY 26 conference call takeaways
- Estimate changes, valuation, and risks
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: Sasol estimate changes — as of August 31, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 12-month Price Target | 198.00 ZAR | Derived from SOTP valuation with combined 2028E EV/EBITDA of 3.6x. |
| Secunda Production | 7.26 million tonnes | Reached a 5-year high driven by improved coal quality from destoning and gasifier availability. |
| SA Integrated Breakeven Oil Price Target | 53-58 USD/bbl | Reflects normalization of macro tailwinds and planned shutdown schedule. |
| Group Net Debt | 3.3 USD billion | Lowest in a decade, tracking toward the <US$3bn threshold for dividend resumption. |
| Group EBITDA Forecast (2027E) | 61,934 ZAR million | Raised from R55,537mn old estimate. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- 12-month Price Target: 198.00 ZAR (12-month forward) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Secunda Production: 7.26 million tonnes (FY26) · Source: Sasol Ltd.
- SA Integrated Breakeven Oil Price Target: 53-58 USD/bbl (FY27) · Source: Sasol Ltd.
- Group Net Debt: 3.3 USD billion (FY26) · Source: Sasol Ltd.
- Group EBITDA Forecast (2027E): 61,934 ZAR million (2027E) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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