Report published September 24, 2026

Goldman Sachs: Riksbank on Hold, We Continue to Expect a Hike in December; Norges Bank Hikes Against a Split Consensus, Keeping the Tightening Bias

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

The Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% but shifted hawkishly, paving the way for a rate hike in December and further hikes to 2.5% in 2027. Meanwhile, Norges Bank surprised a split consensus by hiking to 4.5%, signaling that rates will stay elevated with the first cut now delayed to 2027Q4.

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Key Takeaways

1.The Riksbank kept its policy rate at 1.75% as expected but delivered a hawkish shift in guidance, making a rate hike likely by year-end (Goldman Sachs expects December).
2.Goldman Sachs raised its terminal policy rate forecast for Sweden, expecting two further quarterly hikes to 2.5% in March and June 2027.
3.Norges Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% against a split consensus, keeping a persistent but weak tightening bias while lifting its rate path.

Riksbank
Norges Bank

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
Riksbank Policy Rate	1.75%	Maintained at 1.75%, matching consensus and Goldman Sachs expectations.
Norges Bank Policy Rate	4.5%	Raised from 4.25% to 4.5% against a split consensus.
Riksbank Projected Policy Rate Peak	2.43%	Peak of updated Riksbank rate path in the Monetary Policy Report.
Sweden CPIF Inflation Forecast	1.5%	Revised up from 1.1% in June MPR.
Norway Headline Inflation Forecast	3.3 % yoy	Upgraded by 0.1pp in Norges Bank MPR.