Report published September 8, 2026

Goldman Sachs: Pulp & Paper - Hardwood Momentum Building Into 4Q

Goldman Sachs · September 8, 2026

Goldman Sachs sees short-term pulp price risks skewed to the upside into 4Q, aided by seller margin pushes, currency tailwinds, and seasonality, with Suzano as their top Buy. The report also provides updated operational estimates and price targets for Latin American pulp and paper producers Dexco, CMPC, and COPEC.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Short-term risks for pulp prices are skewed to the upside, supported by seller margin push, stronger RMB, and favorable seasonality through October.
2.China virgin-based paper production remained flat m/m (+3% y/y) in August with port inventories up 3% m/m to 2.30mt, 20% above the 5-year average.
3.European pulp port inventories dropped 10% m/m to 1.2mt in July (11% below historical average), while graphic paper prices held flat amid seasonal weakness.

Global
China
Europe
Latin America
Estimate Changes
Dexco
CMPC
COPEC
Valuation and Key Risks

Report data

Exhibit 9: LatAm Pulp & Paper coverage comp table — as of September 3, 2020.

Metric	Estimate	Context
China FOEX hardwood imported pulp price	563.0 USD/t	China FOEX hardwood imported pulp prices declined by $1/t to $563/t
China FOEX softwood imported pulp price	639.0 USD/t	Imported FOEX prices remained flat at $639/t
China port pulp inventories	2.3 mt	Rose by 67kt m/m, remaining 20% above the 5-year historical average of 1.9mt
Europe pulp port inventories	1.2 mt	Decreased by 134kt m/m in July, 11% below the 1.35mt historical average
China virgin-based paper output	3.3 mt	Total output was 3.30mt in August, with utilization rate at 58%