Report published August 31, 2026
Poland Inflation Rises to +3.4% YoY in August 2026: Goldman Sachs Economic Analysis
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 31, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Kevin Daly, Alessa Ann Abraham
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Poland's headline CPI inflation rose by 0.4pp to +3.4% yoy in August, surpassing consensus expectations due to a surge in transport fuel prices. Core inflation rose slightly to +3.3% yoy, while food inflation hit a 10-year low of -0.9% yoy, leaving the path open for the NBP's next policy move to be a rate cut.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Poland's headline CPI increased to +3.4% yoy in August (from +3.0% yoy in July), exceeding consensus (+3.2% yoy) and Goldman Sachs forecasts (+3.1% yoy).
- 2.The headline increase was almost entirely driven by transport fuel inflation surging to +24.2% yoy, offsetting weakness in food inflation which dropped to -0.9% yoy (a 10-year low).
- 3.Despite the uptick, the bar for the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to hike rates remains high, and Goldman Sachs continues to expect the next policy move to be a rate cut barring further oil price shocks.
Table of Contents
- Exhibit 1: Inflation To Remain Close to Target in the Coming Months
- Exhibit 2: Inflationary Pressures from Food Have Fallen Sharply
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: Inflation To Remain Close to Target in the Coming Months - Headline and core inflation forecasts
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Poland Headline CPI | 3.4 % yoy | Increased from +3.0% yoy in July, above consensus (+3.2% yoy) and GS forecast (+3.1% yoy) |
| Poland Core CPI (Estimate) | 3.3 % yoy | Increased from +3.1% yoy in July |
| Poland Transport Fuel Inflation | 24.2 % yoy | Rose from +15.8% yoy in July (+5.2% mom nsa / +102.9% mom sa annl.) |
| Poland Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Inflation | -0.9 % yoy | Declined from -0.4% yoy in July to lowest rate in over 10 years |
| Poland Utilities (Electricity, gas and other fuels) Inflation | 4.1 % yoy | Rose from +4.0% yoy in July |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Poland Headline CPI: 3.4 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: Statistics Poland / Haver Analytics
- Poland Core CPI (Estimate): 3.3 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
- Poland Transport Fuel Inflation: 24.2 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: Haver Analytics
- Poland Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Inflation: -0.9 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: Haver Analytics
- Poland Utilities (Electricity, gas and other fuels) Inflation: 4.1 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: Haver Analytics
Themes
Regions
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