Report published August 27, 2026
Philippines Monetary Policy: Goldman Sachs on BSP's 25bp Rate Hike to 5.0%
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Chris Poh, Danny Suwanapruti
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25bp to 5.0% at its August meeting, pointing to prolonged inflation risks extending through 2027. Goldman Sachs expects two additional 25bp rate hikes, taking the terminal rate to 5.50%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The BSP raised its policy rate by 25bp to 5.0%, marking its third consecutive hike to pre-empt persistent core inflation, wage hikes, and El Niño shocks.
- 2.The BSP revised its inflation forecast trajectory, lowering 2026 inflation to 6.1% (from 6.4%) but raising 2027 inflation to 5.4% (from 4.5%), reflecting a more persistent overshoot.
- 3.Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for two additional 25bp rate hikes by the BSP, which would bring the policy rate to a peak of 5.50%.
Table of Contents
- Disclosure Appendix
- Reg AC
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- General disclosures
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| BSP Policy Rate | 5.0% | BSP raised its policy rate from 4.75% to 5.00% |
| BSP Forecast 2026 Inflation | 6.1% | BSP lowered its 2026 average inflation forecast from 6.4% |
| BSP Forecast 2027 Inflation | 5.4% | BSP raised its 2027 average inflation forecast from 4.5% |
| GS Expected Terminal BSP Policy Rate | 5.50% | Goldman Sachs expects two more 25bp rate hikes taking the rate to 5.50% |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- BSP Policy Rate: 5.0 % (August 2026) · Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
- BSP Forecast 2026 Inflation: 6.1 % (2026) · Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
- BSP Forecast 2027 Inflation: 5.4 % (2027) · Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
- GS Expected Terminal BSP Policy Rate: 5.50 % (Forward outlook) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Securities
Themes
Regions
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