Report published September 23, 2026

National Bank of Kuwait: Mortgage Draft Law Approved; Sentiment Positive but Largely Priced-in, Finer Details Unclear

Goldman Sachs · September 23, 2026

Kuwait's Cabinet has approved the landmark draft mortgage financing law, transitioning home financing toward commercial lenders. However, Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating on National Bank of Kuwait (KD0.77 PT) as the growth potential is largely priced in and execution faces infrastructure and affordability bottlenecks.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Kuwait's Cabinet approved the draft decree-law on mortgage financing, shifting the country from a state-funded housing model to a public-private commercial market.
2.The growth potential is largely priced in for NBK; consensus already forecasts a 10% loan CAGR for 2026-29E compared to historical 5-year CAGR of ~7.5%.
3.Clearing the 100k+ mortgage backlog could take over a decade due to infrastructure constraints and borrower affordability limits (EMIs exceeding DBR caps).

News
Largely priced-in unless finer details of law prove to be more supportive for the banks
Key components of the law:
1. Scope of application & beneficiary criteria
2. Procedural requirements & funding types
3. Institutional boundaries & government roles
Mortgage backlog could take more than a decade to clear; our sensitivity suggests law could unlock c.2-5pp loan CAGR...
...our base case assumes a +2.5pp loan CAGR over the near-medium term, but margin & earnings profile unclear
Valuation and key risks

Report data

Exhibit 1: Summary of press-speculated details on the draft mortgage law vs. existing KCB program; DBR limit of avg. borrower at c.KWD 500 — as of September 22, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
12-month Price Target	0.77 KWD	ROTE/COE-based 12-month target price for NBK.
Share Price	0.85 KWD	Closing share price of NBK.
Incremental Loan CAGR Uplift	2.5 percentage_points	Estimated incremental CAGR uplift to Kuwait banks' loan growth from the mortgage law.
Current Mortgage Backlog	100,000 applications	Existing housing welfare mortgage backlog in Kuwait.
Maximum Mortgage Size under Draft Law	200,000 KWD	Upper limit for residential mortgage under the draft law, of which KWD 70,000 is subsidized/guaranteed.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; FactSet; Kuwait Credit Bank (KCB), Al Rai News. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.