Report published June 2, 2026

Morning Update: Goldman Sachs Analysis on FX Options, BoJ, and Global Markets - 2 June 2026

Goldman Sachs · June 2, 2026

Goldman Sachs reviews five macro themes, highlighting multi-year lows in FX volatility, the upcoming BoJ rate decision, Colombian election shifts, a US manufacturing beat, and oil price downside risks.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.FX volatility levels are currently at multi-year lows, prompting a preference for long gamma positions in NZDUSD and USDZAR.
2.The market is pricing a 76% chance of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in June, but GS Research forecasts July as the more likely timing.
3.Colombian presidential elections saw right-leaning De la Espriella take the lead; the COP remains attractive for carry (10%) despite fair valuation.

1) FX OPTIONS TRADING (PRANEET) - 5 Themes in FX Options
2) Ueda Speech
3) FX STRATEGY (ALVES) - COP After the First Round
4) US ECON (MERICLE) - ISM Manufacturing Index Above Expectations
5) COMMODITIES RESEARCH (STRUYVEN) – Weak Demand Implies Price Risks Remain Two-Sided

Report data

2 Week Gamma Screen

Metric	Estimate	Context
ISM Manufacturing Index	54.0 Index points	Higher than GS estimate of 53.5 and median forecast of 53.0.
Q2 GDP Tracking Estimate	+1.9% Percentage	Lowered due to downward revisions in construction spending.
BoJ Rate Hike Probability (June)	76% Percentage	Market pricing vs. GS July forecast.
Colombia COP Carry	~10% Percentage	Driven by proactive BanRep hiking cycle.

Source: Institute for Supply Management; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Market pricing. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.