Modeling Potential US Diesel Export Restrictions: Goldman Sachs Commodities Strategy

Key Takeaways

• 1.An initial US diesel export ban would place downward pressure of ~$0.25/gallon per week on retail US diesel prices while domestic storage space remains available.
• 2.Once US diesel storage fills (estimated in 9–10 weeks), refiners would be forced to cut runs by ~2.1mb/d, pushing retail gasoline prices up by ~$0.30/gallon per week.
• 3.A ban would raise European wholesale diesel prices by $3/bbl per week (~2%), though European strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases could offset roughly half of this increase.

Table of Contents

• #1: Lower US Diesel Prices
• #2: Higher US Prices of Gasoline and Other Refined Oil Products
• #3: Higher Ex-US Diesel Prices
• #4: Prices Reconnect Once Ban Is Lifted
• #5: Reiterating Our Long Positions in European Gasoline Hedging Recommendation
• Appendix Charts:
• Appendix: The Relationship Between Product Inventories and Product Prices

Report data

Exhibit 5: Refinery Cuts Would Be Smaller if the Diesel Share of Refinery Output Fell More or if US Diesel Demand Rose More

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