Report published August 27, 2026
Mexico Trade Balance (July 2026): Oil Balance Deterioration Drives Deficit — Goldman Sachs
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Mexico's trade balance unexpectedly deteriorated into a deficit of -US$0.85bn in July 2026, driven by a widening oil deficit. However, non-oil manufacturing exports surged +64.9% yoy, driven by US AI investment spillovers, and capital goods imports picked up.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Mexico recorded a trade deficit of -US$0.85bn in July 2026, significantly missing consensus expectations of a +US$3.0bn surplus.
- 2.The widening trade deficit was primarily driven by a worsening oil balance (-US$3.7bn vs. -US$2.1bn a year ago) due to lower export volumes and surging imports.
- 3.Non-auto manufacturing exports surged (+64.9% yoy), benefiting from US AI investment spillovers, while auto exports remained sluggish (+2.4% yoy).
Table of Contents
- KEY FIGURES (July):
- DETAILS:
- Large Non-Oil Trade Balance Surplus
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Large Non-Oil Trade Balance Surplus (12-month cumulative sum)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -0.85 USD billion | Reported trade balance vs. consensus expectations of +US$3.0bn surplus |
| Oil Balance Deficit | -3.7 USD billion | Widened from -US$2.1bn a year ago |
| Non-Oil Trade Balance Surplus | 2.8 USD billion | Up from US$2.1bn a year ago |
| Crude Oil Exports Volume | -26.3 % yoy | Lower export volume in July |
| Non-Auto Manufacturing Exports | 64.9 % yoy | Driven by AI investment spillovers |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Trade Balance: -0.85 USD billion (July 2026) · Source: INEGI
- Oil Balance Deficit: -3.7 USD billion (July 2026) · Source: INEGI
- Non-Oil Trade Balance Surplus: 2.8 USD billion (July 2026) · Source: INEGI
- Crude Oil Exports Volume: -26.3 % yoy (July 2026) · Source: INEGI
- Non-Auto Manufacturing Exports: 64.9 % yoy (July 2026) · Source: INEGI
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