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Report published September 1, 2026

Mexico: Inflation Expectations, Banxico Policy Stance, and 2026 Growth Outlook

Source and citation context

Report date
September 1, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Market ReportMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther

Banxico's latest survey shows 2027 core inflation expectations improving slightly to 3.80% and 2026 GDP growth rising marginally to 1.30%. However, with inflation expectations persistently unanchored above the 3.0% target, Goldman Sachs sees no room for near-term rate cuts.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Core 2027 inflation expectations improved by 6bp to 3.80%, but both headline and core inflation expectations remain significantly above the central bank's 3.0% target and forecasts.
  • 2.Medium-term (2027-30 at 3.80%) and long-term (2031-34 at 3.70%) inflation expectations remain persistently unanchored above the 3.0% target.
  • 3.Growth expectations for 2026 ticked up by 10bp to 1.30%, while 2027 real GDP growth expectations remained flat at 1.80%.

Table of Contents

  • DETAILS:
  • Above-Target Headline Inflation Expectations
  • High Above-Target Core Inflation Expectations
  • Above-Target Long-Term Inflation Expectations
  • Soft 2026/27 Growth Expectations
  • Disclosure Appendix

Report data

Above-Target Headline Inflation Expectations

MetricEstimateContext
End-2026 Headline Inflation Expectation (Median)3.90%Median expectation from Banxico monthly survey
End-2026 Core Inflation Expectation (Median)3.99%Median expectation from Banxico monthly survey
End-2027 Headline Inflation Expectation (Median)3.84%Unchanged for the fourth consecutive month
End-2027 Core Inflation Expectation (Median)3.80%Median expectation from Banxico monthly survey
1-4 Years Ahead Inflation Expectation (Median, 2027-2030)3.80%Medium-term survey inflation expectation
Source: Banxico. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

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Authors / Editors

Alberto Ramos

Reported Data Context

  • End-2026 Headline Inflation Expectation (Median): 3.90 % (End-2026) · Source: Banxico
  • End-2026 Core Inflation Expectation (Median): 3.99 % (End-2026) · Source: Banxico
  • End-2027 Headline Inflation Expectation (Median): 3.84 % (End-2027) · Source: Banxico
  • End-2027 Core Inflation Expectation (Median): 3.80 % (End-2027) · Source: Banxico
  • 1-4 Years Ahead Inflation Expectation (Median, 2027-2030): 3.80 % (2027-2030) · Source: Banxico

Themes

Banxico Monetary Policy OutlookMexico Inflation Expectations UnanchoringMexico Economic Growth Dynamics

Regions

Latin AmericaNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States

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