Report published September 24, 2026

Mexico: MPC Holds Policy Rate at 6.50%; Forward Guidance Became More Fluid in a Nod to Fed Hikes

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

Banxico unanimously held its policy rate at 6.50% and revised its forward guidance to emphasize domestic determinants rather than mechanically following FOMC rate adjustments. Goldman Sachs expects rates to stay at 6.50% over the foreseeable future, though thin US-Mexico interest rate spreads leave Banxico exposed to global monetary shocks.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Banxico's MPC unanimously kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, matching market and GS consensus expectations.
2.Forward guidance became more fluid, abandoning the previous pledge to keep rates at the current level and signaling policy will depend on domestic disinflation rather than mechanically tracking the Fed.
3.The balance of risks for inflation remains skewed to the upside and for economic growth to the downside, with Banxico expecting persistent economic slack.

MAIN POINTS
Tight US-Mexico Interest Rate Differential
Central Bank Projected Inflation Path
Real Ex-Ante Policy Interest Rate Within Neutral Range
MPC Holds the Policy Rate at 6.50%

Report data

Tight US-Mexico Interest Rate Differential

Metric	Estimate	Context
Banxico Policy Rate	6.50%	MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% in a unanimous decision.
Headline Inflation (Sep-26 MPC Forecast for 4Q2026)	3.5 % yoy	Banxico projected headline inflation for 4Q2026.
Core Inflation (Sep-26 MPC Forecast for 4Q2026)	3.6 % yoy	Banxico raised its 4Q2026 core inflation projection by 10bp from the August QIR.
Headline Inflation Convergence Target	3.0 % yoy	Banxico expects convergence of headline inflation to the 3.0% target by 4Q27.