Report published August 27, 2026
Mexico Labor Market Analysis: Unemployment Beats Consensus as Informality Rises
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos (Contributing Author)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Mexico's July unemployment rate fell to 2.90% (2.71% sa), coming in below the 3.00% consensus. However, labor force participation fell to 58.6% and informality rose to 55.6%, while formal employment growth slowed to 1.45% yoy despite firm real wage growth of 3.5% yoy.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Mexico's July unemployment rate printed at 2.90% (2.71% seasonally adjusted), beating consensus expectations of 3.00%.
- 2.Labor force participation fell by 10bp sequentially to 58.6% sa (-100bp yoy), while informality rose to 55.6% (+50bp sequentially).
- 3.Formal employment growth slowed to 1.45% yoy according to IMSS, but real wage growth strengthened to 3.5% yoy, keeping real wage bill growth solid at 5.0% yoy.
Table of Contents
- KEY NUMBERS (Jul):
- DETAILS:
- Moderate Formal Employment; Solid Real Wage Growth
- Broad Unemployment Rate Tracking Slightly Above 10%
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Moderate Formal Employment; Solid Real Wage Growth
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate (headline) | 2.90% | Below Bloomberg consensus and Goldman Sachs forecast of 3.00% |
| Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) | 2.71% | +22bp from the Oct-24 record low |
| Broad Unemployment Rate | 10.1% | Includes individuals outside the labor force but available to work; below the 13.7% pre-pandemic historical average |
| Labor Force Participation Rate (sa) | 58.6% | Seasonally adjusted labor participation rate |
| Labor Informality Rate (sa) | 55.6% | Seasonally adjusted informality rate |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Unemployment Rate (headline): 2.90 % (2026-07) · Source: INEGI / Haver Analytics
- Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted): 2.71 % (2026-07) · Source: INEGI / Haver Analytics
- Broad Unemployment Rate: 10.1 % (2026-07) · Source: INEGI / Haver Analytics
- Labor Force Participation Rate (sa): 58.6 % (2026-07) · Source: INEGI / Haver Analytics
- Labor Informality Rate (sa): 55.6 % (2026-07) · Source: INEGI / Haver Analytics
Themes
Regions
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