Report published September 28, 2026

Mexico: Lower Than Expected Trade Balance in Aug Driven by Deteriorating Oil Balance – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs · September 28, 2026

Mexico posted a lower-than-expected US$0.61bn trade surplus in August 2026 as a widening oil deficit offset gains. However, non-oil manufacturing exports rose sharply, propelled by US artificial intelligence investment spillovers.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Mexico's trade balance recorded a US$0.61bn surplus in August 2026, falling short of the consensus expectation of US$1.52bn, though improving from a US$2.1bn deficit a year ago.
2.The yearly improvement was driven by the non-oil balance expanding to a US$4.1bn surplus, partially offset by a deepening oil deficit of US$3.4bn due to weak oil export volumes (-40.9% yoy) and higher imports.
3.Non-auto manufacturing exports surged 63.2% yoy, driven by spillover demand from strong artificial intelligence investment in the US, while auto exports remained sluggish (-2.2% yoy).

KEY FIGURES (Aug):
DETAILS:
Large Non-Oil Trade Balance Surplus

Report data

Large Non-Oil Trade Balance Surplus (12-month cumulative sum)

Metric	Estimate	Context
Trade Balance	0.61 USD billion	Actual recorded surplus vs consensus expectation of +US$1.52bn
Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance	3.5 USD billion	Seasonally adjusted trade balance surplus vs -US$0.1bn in Jul-26
Non-Oil Trade Balance	4.1 USD billion	Non-oil trade balance surplus compared to US$0.2bn a year ago
Oil Trade Balance	-3.4 USD billion	Oil deficit widened compared to US$2.3bn a year ago
Crude Oil Export Volume	-40.9%	Year-over-year decline in crude oil export volume