Report published September 24, 2026
Mexico: 1H Sep Headline Inflation Impacted by Non-Core; Sticky Services
Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026
Mexico's headline CPI rose 0.33% in 1H September (3.42% yoy), driven by non-core food and energy increases. While core inflation decelerated marginally to 3.78% yoy, sticky services inflation at 4.33% yoy keeps the central bank constrained regarding additional rate cuts.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Headline inflation in 1H September printed at 0.33% mom (3.42% yoy), driven higher by non-core components such as fresh produce, animal protein, and energy.
- 2.Core inflation moderated slightly to 3.78% yoy, but services inflation remains persistently high and sticky at 4.33% yoy, driven by elevated labor costs.
- 3.Current inflation levels and persistent service pressures make it uncomfortable for Banxico to pursue additional policy rate cuts, especially amid narrower US-Mexico rate differentials.
Table of Contents
- KEY FIGURES (1H Sep):
- DETAILS:
- Core Inflation Measures Sensitive to Supply and Demand Shocks; Core Inflation Within Upper Target Range
- Slow Core Inflation Downward Trend; Headline Inflation Dynamics Driven Chiefly by Non-Core
- High and Sticky Core Services Inflation; Elevated Food Away from Home Inflation
- Mexico: Inflation Dynamics Since 2010
- INPC Inflation by Main Components
Report data
INPC Inflation by Main Components
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Headline INPC Inflation | 0.33 % mom | Bi-weekly change, printing above consensus and GS forecast of 0.28% |
| Headline INPC Annual Inflation | 3.42 % yoy | Up 16bp from 3.26% in 2H Aug |
| Core INPC Annual Inflation | 3.78 % yoy | Declined by 5bp from 3.83% yoy in 2H Aug |
| Services Inflation | 4.33 % yoy | Broadly stable at a high 4.33% (+1bp from 2H Aug) |
| Non-Core Fruits & Vegetables Inflation | 3.38 % mom | Annual rate tracking at 7.91% yoy, driven by a 22.79% surge in red tomatoes |
Reports in this series
Economics Research is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.
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