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Report published September 24, 2026

Mexico: 1H Sep Headline Inflation Impacted by Non-Core; Sticky Services

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

Mexico's headline CPI rose 0.33% in 1H September (3.42% yoy), driven by non-core food and energy increases. While core inflation decelerated marginally to 3.78% yoy, sticky services inflation at 4.33% yoy keeps the central bank constrained regarding additional rate cuts.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Headline inflation in 1H September printed at 0.33% mom (3.42% yoy), driven higher by non-core components such as fresh produce, animal protein, and energy.
  • 2.Core inflation moderated slightly to 3.78% yoy, but services inflation remains persistently high and sticky at 4.33% yoy, driven by elevated labor costs.
  • 3.Current inflation levels and persistent service pressures make it uncomfortable for Banxico to pursue additional policy rate cuts, especially amid narrower US-Mexico rate differentials.

Table of Contents

  • KEY FIGURES (1H Sep):
  • DETAILS:
  • Core Inflation Measures Sensitive to Supply and Demand Shocks; Core Inflation Within Upper Target Range
  • Slow Core Inflation Downward Trend; Headline Inflation Dynamics Driven Chiefly by Non-Core
  • High and Sticky Core Services Inflation; Elevated Food Away from Home Inflation
  • Mexico: Inflation Dynamics Since 2010
  • INPC Inflation by Main Components

Report data

INPC Inflation by Main Components

MetricEstimateContext
Headline INPC Inflation0.33 % momBi-weekly change, printing above consensus and GS forecast of 0.28%
Headline INPC Annual Inflation3.42 % yoyUp 16bp from 3.26% in 2H Aug
Core INPC Annual Inflation3.78 % yoyDeclined by 5bp from 3.83% yoy in 2H Aug
Services Inflation4.33 % yoyBroadly stable at a high 4.33% (+1bp from 2H Aug)
Non-Core Fruits & Vegetables Inflation3.38 % momAnnual rate tracking at 7.91% yoy, driven by a 22.79% surge in red tomatoes
Source: INEGI. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

Economics Research is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 24, 2026.

Part of the Economics Research series — view all 17 editions

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