Report published September 29, 2026

Goldman Sachs: Markets, Stocks and Bonds – Equity Resilience Amid Rising Real Yields

Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026

Despite 10-year US Treasury yields backing up to 5.27% driven by real rates, headline US equity indices have proven resilient due to strong mega-cap earnings growth. The desk views higher rates as a valuation headwind rather than a structural wrecking ball, recommending tactical portfolio balance by pairing core US equity length with long commodities, short fixed income options, and rate-sensitive sector tail hedges.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Surging yields driven by real rates rather than inflation have pressured rate-sensitive market segments, but headline US equity indices remain resilient near all-time highs due to robust mega-cap earnings growth.
2.Without an inflation surge or systemic credit seizure, higher yields act as a headwind rather than a market 'wrecking ball', distinguishing today's environment from 2022 or 2007.
3.Tactical positioning remains bullish on the broader trend: maintain core equity length paired with tactical long commodities and fixed-income short options, while purchasing inexpensive tail hedges on rate-sensitive sectors.

Report data

10-Year TIPS Yield (25-Year History) — as of September 29, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
US 2-Year Treasury Yield Change	145 bps	2-year notes have backed up significantly year to date.
S&P 500 Trading Level	7700 index points	S&P mired in a range trade around 7700 level.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield	5.27%	Yield on 10-year notes compared to 4.14% one year prior.
S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple	19 x	Compressed from 23x one year prior alongside rising yields.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield 1-Month Move	50 bps	Equivalent to 2 standard deviations in monthly nominal yield backup.