Report published September 14, 2026

Malaysia Monetary Policy: Goldman Sachs Forecasts 25bp BNM Rate Hike in Q1 2027

Goldman Sachs · September 14, 2026

Goldman Sachs has shifted its baseline view on Bank Negara Malaysia, now forecasting a 25bp policy rate hike to 3.0% in Q1 2027 instead of an extended pause. The shift is supported by hawkish tweaks in policy statement wording and more manageable external risks, though benign inflation allows BNM to remain patient.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Goldman Sachs forecasts Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will increase the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25bp to 3.0% in Q1 2027, revising their earlier baseline of an extended pause.
2.Subtle shifts in BNM's monetary policy language and diminishing external risks weaken the justification for retaining the July 2025 'insurance cut'.
3.A Q1 2027 move is favoured over November 2026 because inflation remains subdued and headline economic growth (~5% in 2026) is narrowly driven by tech and energy rather than broad-based overheating.

Key Messages
Hawkish tilt in policy language
Uncertainty no longer a deterrent to policy normalization
Benign inflation gives BNM room to wait
Strong growth remains uneven

Report data

Exhibit 1: Key changes in BNM's policy statements during past hiking cycles

Metric	Estimate	Context
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)	3.0%	Projected policy rate increase by Bank Negara Malaysia.
Headline GDP Growth Forecast	around 5%	Expected annual Malaysian economic growth for 2026.
Technology-related Sector Growth	11.3 % yoy	Growth in technology sector, approximately 1.3 standard deviations above its 2016–24 average.
Energy-related Sector Growth	7.9 % yoy	Growth in energy sector, approximately 1.3 standard deviations above its 2016–24 average.
Technology and Energy Share of GDP	around 22%	Combined share of economic activity accounted for by technology and energy clusters.