Report published September 25, 2026
Goldman Sachs: LATAM Week Ahead: MPC Meeting in Colombia (Hold at 12.0%)
Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026
Goldman Sachs expects Colombia's MPC to hold its policy rate at 12.0% in a divided 4-3 vote on September 30. The committee is expected to maintain a restrictive, data-dependent stance supported by COP strength and slowing domestic activity.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Colombia's MPC is expected to maintain its policy rate at 12.0% in a divided 4-3 vote, favoring a 'high-for-long' approach over resuming rate hikes.
- 2.Substantial COP appreciation and risk-premium compression are expected to offset external hawkish pressures, supporting core disinflation.
- 3.Colombian economic momentum is weakening after transitory Q2 strength, leading analysts to forecast flat sequential GDP growth in Q3.
Table of Contents
- Clearly Restrictive Policy Stance After Cumulative 275bp Hiking Cycle; Still Unmoored but Declining Inflation Expectations
- COLOMBIA: Data Flow Since July 31 MPC Meeting
- DATA NEXT WEEK:
Report data
Clearly Restrictive Policy Stance After Cumulative 275bp Hiking Cycle; Still Unmoored but Declining Inflation Expectations
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia Policy Rate | 12.00% | Projected hold by Colombia's MPC at its September 30 meeting |
| Colombia Real Ex-Ante Rate (1-year ahead) | 6.3% | Real ex-ante rate stands more than 300bp above the estimated neutral rate (r*) |
| COP vs USD Appreciation | 11% | Appreciation since the first-round of the presidential election |
| Colombia Q2 Real GDP Growth | 1.3% | Quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted real GDP growth |
| Colombia Q3 Sequential GDP Growth Forecast | 0.0% | Forecast sequential quarterly growth |
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LATAM Week Ahead is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.
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