Report published September 29, 2026
LATAM Today: Goldman Sachs on Brazil Credit Conditions, Labor Dynamics, and Colombia Rate Decision
Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026
This daily note reviews Brazilian economic data showing firm August credit origination alongside record household debt service and rising NPLs, as well as resilient labor markets. It also previews monetary policy and macro releases across Colombia, Chile, and Mexico.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Brazilian credit origination rose 2.0% mom sa in August, but household indebtedness (49.9%) and debt service (28.7% of disposable income) reached record highs alongside rising delinquency.
- 2.Brazil's labor market remained resilient with unemployment at 5.3% (5.4% sa) and real wage growth accelerating, but shows early signs of softening amidst broader economic deceleration.
- 3.In Colombia, Goldman Sachs expects the central bank MPC to hike the policy rate by 50bp to 12.50%, maintaining a restrictive stance while relying on COP strength and risk-premium compression to mitigate external Fed tightening.
Table of Contents
- BRAZIL
- Resilient Labor Market; Firm Sequential Real Wage Growth and Flat Employment
- CHILE
- COLOMBIA
- MEXICO
- LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
- LA-ITS Policy Rate
Report data
LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil Credit Origination (mom sa) | 2.0% | Credit origination firmed in real terms, driven by freely-allocated credit to corporates and households. |
| Brazil Household Indebtedness share of disposable income | 49.9% | Household indebtedness reached a record high level. |
| Brazil Household Debt Service share of disposable income | 28.7% | Household debt service reached a record high level. |
| Brazil Household NPLs (freely allocated) | 8.0% | Overdue loans for 90 or more days rose from 7.1% in Dec. |
| Brazil National Unemployment Rate | 5.3% | Printed in line with consensus; seasonally adjusted at 5.4%. |
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