Report published September 25, 2026
LATAM Today: Argentina Growth Slowdown, Brazil Inflation, and Banxico Rate Decision
Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026
Goldman Sachs reviews key Latin American macro data for September 25, 2026, including weak Argentina July EMAE activity and a downgrade of 2026 GDP to 1.8%. In Brazil, an upside surprise in September IPCA-15 inflation limits rate cut potential, while Mexico's central bank held rates at 6.50% with more flexible forward guidance.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Argentina's July EMAE real GDP fell 1.4% yoy (-2.9% mom sa), significantly below expectations, prompting Goldman Sachs to mark down its 2026 growth forecast by 0.3pp to 1.8%.
- 2.Brazil's September IPCA-15 surprised to the upside at 0.70% mom (4.47% yoy), driven by strong services momentum, suggesting limited room for monetary policy rate cuts.
- 3.Mexico's central bank (Banxico) held its policy rate unchanged at 6.50% and made forward guidance more fluid, de-linking mechanical reactions from Fed hikes while signaling domestic macro focus.
Table of Contents
- ARGENTINA: Very Weak Growth in July
- BRAZIL: Higher Than Expected Sept IPCA-15; Accelerating Core and Services Momentum
- ECUADOR: Data Today
- MEXICO: MPC Holds Policy Rate at 6.50%; Forward Guidance Became More Fluid in a Nod to Fed Hikes
- MEXICO: Tight Labor Market; Higher Participation Rate; Lower Informality
- LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
- LA-ITS Policy Rate
Report data
LA-IT5 Headline Inflation Simple Average
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina EMAE Real GDP | -1.4% | Year-on-year change in economic activity indicator, below 1.3% expectations |
| Argentina 2026 Real GDP Forecast | 1.8% | Goldman Sachs marked down forecast by 0.3pp |
| Brazil IPCA-15 Inflation | 0.70% | Month-on-month print, above 0.55% consensus (annual rate at 4.47%) |
| Mexico Banxico Policy Rate | 6.50% | Banxico MPC kept rate unchanged unanimously |
| Mexico Unemployment Rate | 3.01% | Slightly above 2.93% a year ago; seasonally adjusted rate at 2.72% |
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LATAM Today is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.
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