Report published September 24, 2026

LATAM Today: Brazil 3Q26 Monetary Policy Report and Banxico Rate Decision

Goldman Sachs · September 24, 2026

Goldman Sachs reviews macro developments across Latin America, focusing on Brazil's 3Q26 Monetary Policy Report and Mexico's upcoming MPC decision. The reports highlight stubborn services inflation and narrowing US interest rate differentials, which constrain monetary accommodation in both countries.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Brazil's 3Q26 Monetary Policy Report maintains above-target inflation forecasts across the monetary policy horizon, leaving limited near-term room for Selic rate cuts.
2.Banxico is widely expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 6.50% today due to tight US-Mexico rate differentials, sticky services inflation, and firm economic activity.
3.Mexico's July real economic activity surprised to the upside, surging 0.76% mom sa (3.4% yoy), driven by strong services, construction, and manufacturing.

ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
3Q26-MPR: Above-Target Inflation Forecasts; Weaker 2026/27 Growth
Consumer Confidence Deteriorated Again in September
ECUADOR
MEXICO
MPC Meeting: On Hold While Mex-US Rate Differential Tightens Further
1H Sep Headline Inflation Impacted by Non-Core; Sticky Services
Strong Real Activity Growth in Jul Driven by Services and Manufacturing/Construction
LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
LA-ITS Policy Rate

Report data

LA-IT5 Headline Inflation Simple Average

Metric	Estimate	Context
Brazil Real GDP Growth Forecast 2026	1.8%	Central bank downgraded 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.0% in 3Q26-MPR.
Brazil Neutral Real Rate (r*)	5.0%	Central bank estimate remained steady.
Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence Index	84.2 points	Fell 0.5pt to reach lowest level since November 2022.
Mexico Central Bank Policy Rate	6.50%	Goldman Sachs forecasts Banxico will unanimously hold the policy rate at 6.50%.
Mexico Real Economic Activity (IGAE)	0.76 % mom sa	Real activity beat consensus of 0.15% driven by services and manufacturing.