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Report published September 1, 2026

Goldman Sachs: LATAM Today – Brazil 2Q26 GDP Deceleration and Regional Macro Outlook

Source and citation context

Report date
September 1, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos, Sergio Armella, Santiago Tellez, Panteleymon Semka

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Daily UpdateMacro Economic IndicatorsOther

Goldman Sachs reviews recent Latin American economic indicators, highlighting Brazil's 2Q26 GDP deceleration to 0.48% qoq sa alongside a downgrade of Chile's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% following sharp contractions in July Imacec, industrial output, and retail sales. In Mexico, private sector credit growth held at 3.3% yoy in real terms while business confidence remained depressed below 50 for the 17th straight month.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Brazil's 2Q26 real GDP grew 0.48% qoq sa (2.0% yoy), decelerating from 1.07% in 1Q26 as household consumption dropped 0.4% qoq sa and net exports subtracted 51bp from growth.
  • 2.Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 Chile GDP growth forecast from 0.8% to 0.6% after July Imacec contracted 1.5% yoy (-1.7% mom sa), driven by adverse weather in mining and broad weakness across manufacturing and retail.
  • 3.Mexico's private sector bank credit rose 3.3% yoy in real terms in July, while aggregate business confidence remained below the 50-neutral mark for the 17th consecutive month at 48.2.

Table of Contents

  • BRAZIL
  • Real GDP Growth Decelerated in 2Q26; Softer Final Domestic Demand; Negative Contribution from Net Exports
  • Data This Week:
  • CHILE
  • Weak July Growth; Lowering Our 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.6%
  • Very Weak Industrial Production and Retail Sales in July
  • COLOMBIA
  • MEXICO
  • Moderate Private Sector Credit Growth
  • Flat/Mixed Business Sentiment; Firming INEGI Manufacturing PMI
  • LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
  • LA-ITS Policy Rate
  • Disclosure Appendix

Report data

LA-IT5 Headline Inflation (Simple Average)

MetricEstimateContext
Real GDP Growth (Brazil)0.48%Decelerated from 1.07% qoq sa in 1Q26; consensus was 0.4%
Real GDP Growth (Brazil)2.0%10bp above consensus of 1.9%
Real GDP Growth Forecast for 2026 (Chile)0.6%Revised down following weak July Imacec contraction
Imacec Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (Chile)-1.5%Below expectations of -0.7% yoy; sequentially -1.7% mom sa
Real Bank Credit Growth to Private Sector (Mexico)3.3%Held steady supported by moderation in inflation to 3.12% yoy
Source: IBGE / Bloomberg; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Banco Central de Chile; Banxico. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

LATAM Today is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.

Part of the LATAM Today series — view all 31 editions

Looking for the latest edition? LATAM Today September 14, 2026 (Sep 14, 2026)

  1. May 10LATAM Today May 8
  2. May 18LATAM Today May 18
  3. May 24LATAM Today May 22, 2026
  4. May 28LATAM Today May 28
  5. Jun 8LATAM Today June 8, 2026
  6. Jun 11LATAM Today June 11, 2026
  7. Jun 12LATAM Today June 12
  8. Jun 29LATAM Today June 29, 2026
  9. Jul 16LATAM Today July 16, 2026
  10. Jul 22LATAM Today July 22, 2026
  11. Jul 23LATAM Today July 23, 2026
  12. Jul 24LATAM Today July 24, 2026
  13. Jul 28LATAM Today July 28, 2026
  14. Jul 30LATAM Today July 30, 2026
  15. Aug 3LATAM Today August 3, 2026
  16. Aug 5LATAM Today August 5, 2026
  17. Aug 7LATAM Today August 7, 2026
  18. Aug 10LATAM Today August 10, 2026
  19. Aug 13LATAM Today August 13, 2026
  20. Aug 26LATAM Today August 26, 2026(1)
  21. Aug 27LATAM Today August 27, 2026
  22. Aug 28LATAM Today August 28, 2026
  23. Aug 31LATAM Today August 31, 2026

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Authors / Editors

Alberto RamosSergio ArmellaSantiago TellezPanteleymon Semka

Reported Data Context

  • Real GDP Growth (Brazil): 0.48 % (2Q2026) · Source: IBGE / Bloomberg
  • Real GDP Growth (Brazil): 2.0 % (2Q2026) · Source: IBGE / Bloomberg
  • Real GDP Growth Forecast for 2026 (Chile): 0.6 % (2026 FY) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
  • Imacec Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (Chile): -1.5 % (July 2026) · Source: Banco Central de Chile
  • Real Bank Credit Growth to Private Sector (Mexico): 3.3 % (July 2026) · Source: Banxico

Themes

Latin American Economic Growth DecelerationMonetary Policy & Inflation Dynamics in LATAM

Regions

Latin AmericaBrazilChileColombia

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Goldman SachsDaily UpdateMacro Economic Indicators

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