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Report published August 28, 2026

Goldman Sachs: LATAM Today – Brazil Credit Contraction & Colombia Fiscal Outlook

Source and citation context

Report date
August 28, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos, Sergio Armella, Santiago Tellez, Panteleymon Semka

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Daily UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsFinancialsOther

In Brazil, July real credit origination fell 0.2% mom sa amid record debt service and rising NPLs, while August consumer confidence dropped to 84.7. In Colombia, the government sharply revised up overall deficit targets to 7.2% of GDP in 2026 and 9.4% in 2027, backloading fiscal consolidation to 2028.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Brazil credit origination contracted 0.2% mom sa in real terms in July, alongside near-record household indebtedness (49.8% of disposable income) and record debt service (28.9%).
  • 2.FGV's consumer confidence index in Brazil fell 3.6 points in August to 84.7, its lowest level since November 2022, while business confidence weakened across manufacturing, construction, and retail.
  • 3.Colombia's revised budget projects wider fiscal deficits of 7.2% of GDP in 2026 and a record 9.4% in 2027, backloading consolidation to 2028 despite planned structural spending reforms.

Table of Contents

  • BRAZIL
  • Credit Origination Declined in Jul; Record High Household Indebtedness and Debt Service; Rising NPLs
  • Consumer Confidence Deteriorated Visibly in Aug; Business Confidence Weakened in Manufacturing/Construction/Retail
  • COLOMBIA
  • Significantly Higher Than Anticipated Deficit Projections in 2026-27; Structural Reform to Lower 2027 Fiscal Gap by 2pp of GDP
  • LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
  • LA-IT5 Policy Rate
  • Disclosure Appendix

Report data

LA-IT5 Headline Inflation

MetricEstimateContext
Brazil Real Credit Origination-0.2 % mom saCredit origination declined in real terms in July.
Brazil Household Debt Service Share of Disposable Income28.9%Rose to a new record high of disposable income.
Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence Index84.7 pointsFell to its lowest level since November 2022.
Colombia Central Government Overall Deficit (Projected)7.2 % of GDPRevised upward by the incoming administration.
Colombia Central Government Overall Deficit (Projected)9.4 % of GDPProjected at a record high level in the revised spending budget.
Source: FGV; Medium-Term Fiscal Framework / Ministry of Finance. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

LATAM Today is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.

Part of the LATAM Today series — view all 26 editions

Looking for the latest edition? LATAM Today September 4, 2026 (Sep 4, 2026)

  1. May 10LATAM Today May 8
  2. May 18LATAM Today May 18
  3. May 24LATAM Today May 22, 2026
  4. May 28LATAM Today May 28
  5. Jun 8LATAM Today June 8, 2026
  6. Jun 11LATAM Today June 11, 2026
  7. Jun 12LATAM Today June 12
  8. Jun 29LATAM Today June 29, 2026
  9. Jul 16LATAM Today July 16, 2026
  10. Jul 22LATAM Today July 22, 2026
  11. Jul 23LATAM Today July 23, 2026
  12. Jul 24LATAM Today July 24, 2026
  13. Jul 28LATAM Today July 28, 2026
  14. Jul 30LATAM Today July 30, 2026
  15. Aug 3LATAM Today August 3, 2026
  16. Aug 5LATAM Today August 5, 2026
  17. Aug 7LATAM Today August 7, 2026
  18. Aug 10LATAM Today August 10, 2026
  19. Aug 26LATAM Today August 26, 2026(1)
  20. Aug 27LATAM Today August 27, 2026

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Authors / Editors

Alberto RamosSergio ArmellaSantiago TellezPanteleymon Semka

Reported Data Context

  • Brazil Real Credit Origination: -0.2 % mom sa (2026-07)
  • Brazil Household Debt Service Share of Disposable Income: 28.9 % (2026-06)
  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence Index: 84.7 points (2026-08) · Source: FGV
  • Colombia Central Government Overall Deficit (Projected): 7.2 % of GDP (2026) · Source: Medium-Term Fiscal Framework / Ministry of Finance
  • Colombia Central Government Overall Deficit (Projected): 9.4 % of GDP (2027) · Source: Medium-Term Fiscal Framework / Ministry of Finance

Securities

USDCOP

Themes

Latin American Credit Cycles and Household LeverageColombian Fiscal Consolidation and Sovereign Debt Trajectory

Regions

Latin AmericaBrazilColombia

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Goldman SachsDaily UpdateUSDCOPMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt Bonds

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