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Report published August 27, 2026

Goldman Sachs LATAM Today: Brazil Labor Resiliency, Mexico GDP Upgrade, and Regional Macro Trends

Source and citation context

Report date
August 27, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Alberto Ramos, Sergio Armella, Santiago Tellez, Panteleymon Semka

Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

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Goldman Sachs reviews macro prints across Latin America, noting Brazil's resilient labor market and wide July current account deficit alongside Mexico's upgraded 2026 GDP forecast by Banxico and weaker oil-driven trade balance.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Brazil's labor market remained tight with seasonally adjusted unemployment falling to 5.4%, near record lows, continuing to fuel cost-push pressures on services inflation.
  • 2.Brazil recorded a wider-than-expected July current account deficit of US$8.1bn driven by services and factor payments, while net FDI moderated to US$3.5bn.
  • 3.Banxico upgraded Mexico's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.1% in its 2Q Inflation Report, while output gap slack narrowed but remains negative.

Table of Contents

  • BRAZIL
  • Resilient Labor Market; Firmer Sequential Employment and Real Wage Growth
  • Large Current Account Deficit in Jul Driven by Services and Factor Payments; Small Portfolio Inflows; Moderate FDI
  • CHILE
  • MEXICO
  • QIR: Firmer 2026 Growth Outlook; Output Gap Still Negative but Narrower
  • Lower Than Expected Unemployment Rate; Lower Participation Rate; Rising Informality
  • Weak Trade Balance in July Driven by Deteriorating Oil Balance
  • LA-IT5 Headline Inflation
  • LA-ITS Policy Rate
  • Disclosure Appendix

Report data

LA-IT5 Headline Inflation Simple Average

MetricEstimateContext
Brazil Unemployment Rate5.3%In line with consensus; seasonally adjusted rate printed at 5.4%
Brazil Current Account Deficit8.1 US$ bnWider than Bloomberg consensus
Brazil Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)7.5 US$ bnBelow consensus of US$8.0bn
Mexico Banxico Policy Rate6.5%Kept unchanged in unanimous MPC decision on Aug 6
Mexico 2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast (Banxico QIR)1.5%Upgraded from 1.1% in previous QIR
Source: Bloomberg; Banxico. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

LATAM Today is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 27, 2026.

Part of the LATAM Today series — view all 28 editions

Looking for the latest edition? LATAM Today September 9, 2026 (Sep 9, 2026)

  1. May 10LATAM Today May 8
  2. May 18LATAM Today May 18
  3. May 24LATAM Today May 22, 2026
  4. May 28LATAM Today May 28
  5. Jun 8LATAM Today June 8, 2026
  6. Jun 11LATAM Today June 11, 2026
  7. Jun 12LATAM Today June 12
  8. Jun 29LATAM Today June 29, 2026
  9. Jul 16LATAM Today July 16, 2026
  10. Jul 22LATAM Today July 22, 2026
  11. Jul 23LATAM Today July 23, 2026
  12. Jul 24LATAM Today July 24, 2026
  13. Jul 28LATAM Today July 28, 2026
  14. Jul 30LATAM Today July 30, 2026
  15. Aug 3LATAM Today August 3, 2026
  16. Aug 5LATAM Today August 5, 2026
  17. Aug 7LATAM Today August 7, 2026
  18. Aug 10LATAM Today August 10, 2026
  19. Aug 26LATAM Today August 26, 2026(1)

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Authors / Editors

Alberto RamosSergio ArmellaSantiago TellezPanteleymon Semka

Reported Data Context

  • Brazil Unemployment Rate: 5.3 % (3-month period ending July 2026)
  • Brazil Current Account Deficit: 8.1 US$ bn (July 2026) · Source: Bloomberg
  • Brazil Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): 7.5 US$ bn (July 2026)
  • Mexico Banxico Policy Rate: 6.5 % (August 2026) · Source: Banxico
  • Mexico 2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast (Banxico QIR): 1.5 % (2026) · Source: Banxico

Themes

Latin American Labor Market TightnessCentral Bank Policy Trajectories and Inflation PersistenceCurrent Account and External Balance Trends

Regions

Latin AmericaNorth AmericaBrazilMexicoChile

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